The primary lead dilemma reversal company is the world's largest electrolytic lead company. It has an electrolytic lead production capacity of 400,000 tons, a gold production capacity of 5,000 kilograms, and a silver production capacity of 1,000 tons. At the same time, it also comprehensively recycles by-products such as crude copper, zinc oxide, and sulfuric acid. Affected by low lead smelting and processing costs, the company's main product, the operating income of electrolytic lead in 2014 was 3.083 billion yuan, accounting for 36% of revenue, achieving gross profit of 2.38 million yuan, accounting for only 6.12% of gross profit, and only 0.75% of gross margin. Since 2015, domestic lead smelting and processing costs have risen by 1,000 yuan to 2,700 yuan/ton, but compared with overseas, they are still 10-20% lower, and there is still room for future price increases; benefiting from this, the company's EBIT profit margin increased 1.62 percentage points to 3.62% at the end of 2014, and profitability bottomed out and rebounded. Recycled lead has great potential. Environmental protection has forced industrial integration. In 2014, China's recycled lead production was 1.6 million tons, up 6.7% year on year; refined lead production was 4.22 million tons during the same period, down 5.5% year on year. Currently, recycled lead in China accounts for about 38% of total lead production, and there is still plenty of room for improvement compared to the global average of 56% and the share of more than 90% in developed countries such as Europe, America, and Japan. With the implementation of environmental protection policies (industry entry, pollutant emission standards, etc.) related to the recycled lead industry, it is expected that in the next 3-5 years, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises will be eliminated, and the number of enterprises is expected to be reduced from 200 to less than 10. The concentration of the industry will increase dramatically, and leading enterprises will benefit from this. Seizing channel opportunities and strategically positioning “Internet +” recycling channels is the core competitiveness of renewable resource enterprises. The company plans to invest in the construction of a “waste lead-acid battery recycling network system”, covering 6 provinces including Henan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Sichuan, Jiangxi, and Fujian, to form a national recycled lead recycling network. The recycling volume is expected to reach 720,000 tons; at the same time, the company will build an information network management platform for waste lead-acid battery recycling based on “Internet +”. The “buy” rating is given to consider increasing the largest diluted share capital. The company's EPS for 2015-2017 is estimated to be -0.23 yuan, 0.41 yuan, and 0.85 yuan. In the future, China's recycled lead will correspond to a profit market space of 5 to 60 billion yuan. The company's 16-year performance reversal is highly certain, and it is expected to obtain more than 20% of the recycled lead market share in the long term; therefore, we gave the company a 16-year 50 times PE, corresponding to a reasonable value of 20.5 yuan, and gave it a “buy” rating. The risk suggests that the implementation of environmental protection policies for recycled lead is less than expected; metal prices continue to fall sharply.
豫光金铅(600531)深度研究:电铅之花 再生绽放
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This page is machine-translated. Futubull tries to improve but does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.