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安记食品(603696)新股分析:专注复合调味粉的区域企业 预计上市定价区间15.0-17.5元

平安證券 ·  Nov 25, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Summary of investment points: The overall development trend of condiments is improving, and there is plenty of room for growth in small categories such as compound seasonings and sauces. The company's product differentiation focuses on fine molecular industries such as compound seasoning powder, and selects the blue ocean market for development. At the same time, it adopts a traditional distribution model, relies on dealers for channel expansion, and embarks on a typical small and medium-sized enterprise development path. Expanding supermarket channels in the short term and looking at the transformation of modern distribution models in the long term should be the direction of development. There is a high probability that costs will decline in 16 years. After listing, the capital raised will be invested in production capacity, R&D, and marketing network construction to enhance the company's overall competitive strength. The condiment boom continues to rise, and the development trend of small categories is improving. The overall prosperity of the condiment industry is high, and profitability continues to increase. The penetration rate of the condiment sauce and vinegar industry is high, with leading companies and local brands seizing the market; small categories such as compound seasonings, spices, and sauces are still in the blue ocean market, and the competitive environment is relatively relaxed. The development trend of the industry is improving, and both compound seasonings and sauces can maintain rapid growth. The selected Blue Ocean market has broad room for growth, and channels are rapidly expanding through traditional distribution models. Anji Foods is a local brand enterprise. It has taken the lead in developing in the Blue Ocean market with differentiated products. At the same time, it relies on dealers to drive channel expansion. Brand investment and marketing costs are low, achieving rapid delivery at lower costs, and embarking on the development path of typical small and medium-sized enterprises. In the short term, the company will expand supermarket channels, consolidate the compound seasoning powder market, and develop edible fungus extract and bone broth products, and expand segments; in the medium to long term, the company will grow from small to big, and the transformation to a modern channel model should be the direction of development. There is a high probability that costs will decline, and fund-raising projects enhance overall competitive strength. Benefiting from the relaxed supply pattern of agricultural products, prices of major crops such as peppercorns and turmeric all declined in 2016, which had a positive effect on the company's gross margin. The company raised capital to invest in production, R&D and marketing construction projects to promote the expansion of production capacity and enhance the company's R&D and sales capabilities. Profit forecast and listing pricing: The company's revenue for 2015-2017 is estimated to be 268, 2.87, and 309 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -4%, 7%, and 7%. Based on the share capital of 120 million yuan after listing, EPS is 0.43, 0.50, and 0.55 yuan, respectively. Also, referring to the valuation of comparable companies in the condiment industry, the company's reasonable valuation range in 2016 was 30-35 times PE in 16 years, and the reasonable pricing range was 15.0-17.5 yuan. Risk warning: Food safety risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, supermarket channel expansion falling short of expectations.

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