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百大集团(600865)点评:实际控制人收购股权提振信心 继续推荐买入稀缺肿瘤医院标的

申萬宏源研究 ·  Dec 29, 2015 00:00  · Researches

On the 26th, the company announced the actual controller Chen Xiaxin's plan to acquire the company's shares. The actual controller, Chen Xiaxin, increased his shareholding of 3.66 million shares through the secondary market, accounting for 0.97% of the company's shares. Subsequently, Chen Xiaxin was able to increase the company's shares by no more than 1.03% within 12 months. The actual controller's direct increase in the company's shares shows confidence. The direct acquisition of the company's shares by the actual controller following the issuance of the share acquisition report is another move on the shares of the listed company after increasing the shares of the listed company by 0.02% through Xizi International in July. We believe that on the one hand, this share acquisition enhances the actual controller's ability to control the company, and on the other hand, it also highlights the actual controller's confidence in the future development of the company, and has a significant effect on the company's stock price. The company's current stock price has a high margin of safety. The company's current stock price has a high margin of safety. First, the company's main business is operating steadily, department stores, hotels, and property rental performance is stable, contributing about 150 million yuan in net profit and providing a stable cash flow. Second, the company's main physical properties are all owned, and are located in central Hangzhou. The total revaluation value of the property is about 280,000 square meters. We conservatively estimate that the revalued value of the company's equity owned properties is 8.094 billion yuan, the company's reasonable liquidation value is 9.094 billion yuan, the current total market value is only 6.8 billion yuan, and the stock price has a very high margin of safety. The company's strategy for transforming medical services and treatment services is clear, resources are scarce, and the prospects are broad. The company obtained a tertiary hospital license in April of this year. It is the only private for-profit tertiary hospital in Zhejiang Province, and it is a pilot unit for medical reform in Zhejiang Province, and license resources are very scarce. The company cooperated with Zhejiang Cancer Hospital to build a world-class platform for precise cancer treatment. Furthermore, the company will carry out a series of expansions in the industrial chain around precision treatment and oncology treatment platforms. The company's subsequent expansion includes two aspects. The first is that after the cancer hospital is piloted, it will continue to open cancer hospitals through acquisitions or new construction; on the other hand, the company will continue to expand the cancer hospital industry chain. Maintain profit forecasts and maintain a “buy” rating. We maintain the company's profit forecast for 2015-2017. We expect to achieve net profit of 157 million yuan, 87 million yuan, and 80 million yuan respectively in 2015-2017. In the medium to long term, the company's cancer hospital has 800 beds. We calculate the operating income of 2 million yuan per bed per year and 25% net profit. It is estimated that in 2019, the company's cancer hospital will achieve a net profit of about 400 million yuan per year, giving the medical service business 40 times PE and 20 times the retail business PE, the company's reasonable market value is 19 billion yuan. Maintain a “buy” rating.

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