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锦州银行(416.HK)新股报告

New shares report of Jinzhou Bank (416.HK)

羣益證券(香港) ·  Nov 25, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Taizhou Commercial Bank is the leading urban commercial bank in China. According to the list of the world's 1000 largest banks published by British experts in July 2015, a total of 117 banks in China are on the list according to the total amount of funds at the first level, of which CCB ranks 44th among Chinese banks and 18th among urban commercial banks in China. As of December 31, 2014, according to the data of the China Municipal Supervision Committee, Jichang is one of the only three urban commercial banks in Yunnan Province that have generated 100 billion yuan in total output. As of June 30, 2015, the total assets, loans and deposits of the collection have further increased to 312.9 billion yuan, 94.1 billion yuan and 150 billion yuan respectively.

We recommend investing in speculative stocks.

The company is in charge of

(1) set up the layout of regional services based on Luzhou, the North Economic Zone and the Bohai Sea Economic Zone, benefiting from the regional location; (2) committed to providing personalized financial services for small and medium-sized enterprises and other small customers; (3) deeply penetrating the local economy and maintaining the leading position of the local market in Luzhou. (4) effective regional development model and strong innovation capability to continue to promote the growth of financial services; (5) careful and continuous improvement of the market management and internal control system; (6) rich management system and efficient management system.

Overview of the industry

Benefiting from the rapid economic growth, China's society has generated a huge and strong demand for financing, and China's banking industry is also rapidly losing steam. From 2009 to 2014, the combined annual growth rates of total people's loans and total people's deposits in China's banking institutions were 15.4% and 13.8%, respectively. From 2009 to 2014, the total amount of money paid by the people increased by 19.9%, 14.3%, 15.0%, 14.1% and 13.6% respectively over the same period last year. Despite the overall increase in the amount of money spent by the people, it still keeps growing at a growth rate of more than 13%.

With the economic growth of the province, the industry of the province has also shown a rapid growth rate. As of December 31, 2014, the total amount of people's loans and deposits of provincial banking institutions reached 31250 yuan and 41130 billion yuan, respectively. From 2009 to 2014, the combined annual growth rates of total loans and deposits of provincial banking institutions were 15.0% and 12.6%, respectively. As of December 31, 2014, the total amount of deposits held by the people and foreign banks of the banking financial institutions in Guangzhou reached 1140 yuan and 1730 billion yuan, respectively. From 2009 to 2014, the combined annual growth rates of total deposits between the people and foreign banks of the banking institutions in Guangzhou were 18.0% and 15.1%, respectively.

Profit ability and duty number

Based on the historical records of the past three years, the income of the collection has increased from 3486.1 million in 2012 to 5794.6 million in 2014, with a compound annual growth rate of 28.9%. The annual growth rate is 34.6%, with an annual growth rate of 34.6%, from 1167.5 million in 2012 to 2115.7 in 2014. The increase in income during the prior period was mainly due to an increase in interest income, which was attributable to an increase in customer payments and loans, as well as an increase in the average increase in securities and other financial assets.

Collection purpose

HK $5851.3 of the proceeds from this collection (based on HK $5.09 per share in sales) will be used to strengthen the capital base of the collection to support the continued growth of operations.

Valuation

According to the IPO price HK$4.64 to 5.54, the historical price-to-earnings ratio of Luozhou Bank is 10.1-12.1times, and the price-to-market ratio is about 1.02-1.17times. The historical price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-price ratio of 1963.HK, 6138.HK and 3618.HK are 4.45x and 0.79x, 5.18x and 0.71x respectively, and 5.26x and 0.87 times respectively. The price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-earnings ratio of 2066.HK, which is mainly in northern China, are 6.68 times and 1.33 times respectively; the relative valuations of Taizhou banks are too high. The estimated value is the same as that of regional banks, and in recent years, domestic stocks have been subject to payments and related to state policies or duties. In addition, as mentioned in the financial factors, the credit balance with a particular borrower who has the chance to bear financial losses as a result of a financial agreement amounts to 3.7 billion yuan, and the capital adequacy ratio at the first level is only 7.03%, and other internal factors are low, so we only recommend investment opportunities.

Negative factor

(1) it may be necessary to increase the risk loss preparation in order to cover the actual losses in the future; (2) the collateral or collateral for the payment and payment of guaranteed customers may be insufficient or not fully realized; (3) the investment price of the securities coupons for which the collection is classified is too large, any adverse development of these types of investments may have a significant adverse impact on profitability and liquidity. (4) the high proportion of loans due within one year may have a significant adverse effect on the reliability and stability of interest income, or lead to an increase in the loan liability rate; (5) focus on the development of small and micro enterprises, it may lead to a high level of trust; (6) to meet the related concerns of a particular borrower.

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