Key investment points: The industry is taking advantage of the wind, policies continue to blow the warm air, and the country strongly supports the development of the NEV industry. The NEV industry achieved sales volume of 70,000 units in 2014, and is expected to increase 2.5 times by 250,000 units this year. Assuming annual sales volume of 2 million units by 2020, the industry is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of around 60% in the next few years. Shuguang Co., Ltd. is the leading bus company in the three eastern provinces, and its main business has clearly reversed. The original main business of the Shuguang headquarters was not outstanding, but in May, the strategic direction of the new management completely switched to the new energy sector. According to the number of orders already announced by the company, we expect sales of about 1,000 new energy vehicles in 2015 (800 of which will be delivered centrally in the fourth quarter). At the same time, we are optimistic that the company will continue to develop in the field of new energy vehicles next year. We expect to sell 6,000 units next year, contributing at least 3 billion yuan in revenue to the headquarters, and there will be a clear reversal in performance. Acquired and held control of Yineng Electronics and expanded into the field of core components for new energy sources. The company acquired 70.423% of the shares of Yineng Electronics through a non-public offering of shares to lay out key areas of the NEV industry chain. YiNeng Electronics' early R&D investment was high, and the market did not pay enough attention to it. Therefore, the financial situation was not good last year. However, at present, on the one hand, YiNeng Electronics' market position exceeds market expectations; on the other hand, YiNeng Electronics' business conditions exceed market expectations. YiNeng's market position exceeded expectations. YiNeng is number one in China in the BMS (battery management system) field for power lithium batteries, with a market share of over 30%, and revenue is more than 1 times that of Colet Technology, which is second in the industry. Currently, the company supplies mainstream new energy passenger car companies such as BAIC, GAC, and Changan, and new energy bus companies such as Zhongtong and Huanghai Bus. YiNeng's operating conditions have exceeded market expectations. It is estimated that 100 million will achieve 600 million in revenue this year and 2.5 billion in revenue next year, corresponding to a net profit of about 250 million yuan. The reason for the rapid increase is the volume of PACK orders from companies such as Samsung. YiNeng has made a splendid transformation, moving from a BMS leader in the past to a pack, and is expected to become the leading supplier of battery systems in the future. The pack is the body of the battery, and the BMS is the brain. Although BMS is important, its individual value is small, and the value of the pack is large (including the battery cell). The future industry trend is for BMS and pack manufacturers to penetrate each other and eventually become the only battery system company responsible for battery quality and maintenance. With its dominant position in the BMS field, YiNeng quickly seizes the market in the pack field. It has now been recognized by Samsung, and is expected to become the core PACK manufacturer of Samsung and LG in the future. First coverage, giving a buy rating. We expect the company's net profit to be 46, 235, and 293 million yuan respectively in 2015-2017. Assuming that the impact of the increase in sales is not taken into account, the 2015-2017 EPS is 0.07, 0.38, and 0.47 yuan, respectively. The current price is 188 times, 35 times, and 28 times PE. The target market value is 15 billion yuan, the target price is 24 yuan, and there is still room for more than 80%.
曙光股份(600303)深度研究:过去的BMS龙头 未来的电池系统龙头 从黑马到白马
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