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汇金股份(300368):银行IT业务进入拐点 战略转型加速推进

銀河證券 ·  Dec 7, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: In the era of major financial changes, active strategic transformation, and major financial changes, bank IT companies have entered a period of accelerated transformation; the company has many years of advantages in financial IT hardware manufacturing capabilities and has transformed into a “overall bank solution provider”; the acquisition of Tang Di and Bei Chende to improve “soft power” and a large-scale business layout is beginning to take shape. With the launch of the VTS 100 billion market, industry leader Beichende will explode, and “lightweight, self-service, and intelligent” bank outlets will be the general trend; VTS will be the mainstream choice for branch transformation, and the 100 billion market is expected to accelerate; Beichende is a leading enterprise in the VTS field, and the agricultural bank project has set a benchmark effect. Beichende's VTS market share is expected to increase further, and performance will accelerate growth. The release of smart hardware such as robots is imminent, and Tangdi's performance is expected to exceed expectations, Tangdi will increase the integration of smart terminals and expand application scenarios; the Bank of Communications first introduced bank intelligent service robots, creating a better “demonstration effect” and “advertising effect”; the “Tang Bao” banking service robot will soon be released; the company will launch integrated terminals “Three Musketeers” around payment clearing capabilities: micro POS, convenience service terminals, and mobile card issuers, which are worth expectations for growth. Actively deploying Internet financial services, community O2O is worth expecting the company to use Tangdi Technology as the main body to lay out Internet financial services; the company has a comprehensive layout in credit reporting, P2P, consumer finance, etc.; Tangdi Technology has developed some community O2O products, and the community O2O layout is worth looking forward to, and may facilitate the implementation of Internet financial services. Traditional business is growing steadily, and it is expected that the depreciation and amortization expenses will contribute more to performance improvement and that the pressure on depreciation and amortization expenses in the past two years has been high. As the company's sales scale expands and depreciation and amortization per unit revenue share decreases, gross margin and profit are expected to increase rapidly; the two acquired companies are the main driving force for the company's growth; the implementation of the transformation strategy is firm, and it is expected that the extension will continue to advance. The company's EPS for 15-17 is estimated to be 0.21, 0.48, and 0.73 yuan respectively. Considering the scarcity and high growth of the company's business, referring to the valuation level of Internet finance companies, we believe that the company's reasonable valuation is around 120X in 2016, corresponding to a reasonable valuation of about 58 yuan. First coverage, giving a “recommended” rating. Key risk factors: 1. Business progress falls short of expectations; 2. Increased competition

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