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大连友谊(000679)深度研究报告:转型“金融+” 金控平台助力“P2P+征信”起航

國海證券 ·  Dec 21, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Inject the financial control platform for the entire industry chain to plan the overall strategy of “finance +”. The company plans to acquire assets related to guarantees, credit grants, microfinance, credit reporting, and P2P Internet finance under Wuhan Financial Holdings (at a price of 6.27 billion yuan). If the acquisition is completed, Wuhan Financial Holdings will become the actual controller of the listed company, and the Wuhan State Assets Administration Commission will become the final controller. After this transaction is completed, on the one hand, the performance of listed companies will improve markedly; on the other hand, in the future, listed companies can collaborate and complement existing self-owned commercial property projects, real estate projects, and department store retail, using “finance +” as the overall strategy to provide a full range of “product+finance” services and support from front-end to post-stage for department store retail supply chains, commodity and housing consumers, real estate developers and property operators. If the deal is completed, Dalian Friendship will become the sole listing platform under Wuhan Financial Holdings. (1) In the context of state-owned enterprise reform, increasing the securitization rate of state-owned assets will become a trend. If this transaction is completed, the company will become the only listed company controlled by Wuhan Financial Holdings, and the platform has significant advantages. (2) The shareholders' background in controlling state-owned capital will facilitate the development of the company's various businesses. Currently, in addition to the financial assets to be injected this time, Wuhan Financial Holdings also holds three major financial assets: Hubei Financial Leasing Company, Changjiang Financial Services Company, and Wuhan Financial Exchange. At the same time, it also has shares in Hankou Bank, Fangzheng East Asia Trust, and Wuhan Agricultural Commercial Bank. The huge financial camp under Wuhan Financial Holdings is expected to become a partner of the P2P platform Hanjin, providing Hanjin with sufficient high-quality assets. The four major sectors promote each other to create a complete industrial chain. The target of the company's proposed restructuring now includes the four major business segments of guarantee, credit granting, credit reporting, and P2P Internet finance. The sectors support each other and jointly create a complete industrial chain that provides financial services to small and medium-sized enterprises. Furthermore, we believe that the national layout of the target company's credit granting business will lead to business expansion through company guarantees and P2P platforms, while also providing more sample data from outside the province for credit reporting services. “Hanjin Institute”: Building the largest financial trading platform in central China. (1) The trading volume exceeded 100 million yuan in the first month of launch. Since the official launch of the Hanjin Institute in March 2015, the trading volume in the first month has exceeded 100 million yuan, setting a record for the first month of the launch of the state-owned P2P platform in central China. (2) Adequate high-quality assets are the core guarantee for the sustainable growth of the platform. Wuhan Financial Holdings has a huge network of financial companies, and the credit and guarantee sector can provide a high-quality asset side for the platform. At the same time, we predict that in the future, the financial leasing, financial exchange, and participating banks and trust companies owned by Wuhan Financial Holdings will all be partners of the Hanjin Institute, providing sufficient high-quality assets to the platform. Relying on advantages such as shareholder background advantages and a strong risk control system, Hanjin's platform transaction scale is expected to develop rapidly in 2016. Credit reporting: Gather “government+finance” data to create a “individual+enterprise” credit reporting system. (1) Early effort and rich experience. Wuhan Credit Corporation was awarded the title of “National First Batch of 'National Informatization Pilot Units'” by the National Development and Reform Commission, and is one of the earliest professional institutions in China to engage in credit reporting business. Currently, the company has the country's leading personal and business credit reporting system. (2) Gather “government+finance” data. Through close cooperation with various functional departments of the Wuhan Municipal Government, the focus is on collecting corporate credit data generated from public services and social management, and accumulated customer information through financial services under the Wuxin Investment Group. (3) Outlook 1: The personal credit reporting business is expected to achieve a breakthrough. The company is currently responsible for the construction and operation of a joint social credit reporting system (including individuals and enterprises) in Wuhan. We believe that the company has leading technical and experience advantages in personal credit reporting business, and is expected to achieve breakthroughs in personal credit reporting licenses in the future. (4) Outlook 2: Gradual expansion of data sources to Hubei Province. We believe that in the future, as the construction of the credit system in Hubei Province progresses, the company is expected to share credit data with Hubei Province. They are optimistic about the development prospects of the company's Internet finance and credit reporting business, and give it a “buy” rating. We forecast that regardless of the performance of this asset injection, the net profit of Dalian Friendship's original main business from 2015 to 2017 was 41 million yuan, -67 million yuan, and -48 million yuan respectively; if the asset restructuring is completed, the net profit of listed companies in 15-17 will be 690 million yuan, 680 million yuan, and 875 million yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 41.5 times, 42 times, and 33 times, respectively. In the case of the completion of this asset restructuring, considering the company's aircraft carrier-level financial holding shareholder background, the synergy of the entire industry chain layout, and the broad future development prospects of the P2P and credit reporting business, we gave the company a “buy” rating. Risk warning: This major asset restructuring process has been blocked; the company's original main business has declined beyond expectations; the asset performance of the proposed acquisition target has not met expectations, and the development of the P2P platform and credit reporting business has fallen short of expectations.

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