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晓程科技(300139):国内业务增长缓慢 积极布局国际市场

Xiaocheng Technology (300139): Domestic business growth is slow and actively lays out the international market

長城國瑞 ·  Dec 16, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The company is mainly committed to the design and development of a series of integrated circuit products such as power line carrier chips, and sells products such as integrated circuits and electric energy meters with independent intellectual property rights to provide users with relevant technical services and complete solutions. The company's current main business structure includes loss reduction projects, integrated circuit application and design, BOT projects, etc. Looking at domestic business, the demand for electric energy meters from the State Grid is currently increasing slowly, and competition in the domestic meter business is very intense. Affected by this, the company's domestic business has declined quite clearly. The company has realized the problem of not having an accurate grasp of the State Grid's R&D direction before, and launched the XC6000 chip series products in the second half of this year, which is expected to improve in the future. Judging from the foreign business, the company has actively expanded its business space overseas since 2012 to export advanced domestic technology. It has now achieved remarkable results. According to the disclosed data, the company's overseas business accounted for 70.30% of gross profit. Future development strategy for overseas business: The company has been operating in the Ghanaian market for many years, and is currently making every effort to build a complete industrial chain from the electricity consumption end and the power distribution end to the power generation end, which has formed a good demonstration effect; for the newly developed South African market, the company will continue to use the PPP project cooperation model to replicate the EMFULEN model to more than 170 cities with huge water and electricity leaks in the country, and there is plenty of room for market development in the South African market in the future. Profit forecast and investment rating: Under the premise of steady growth in the company's existing loss reduction projects, integrated circuit application and design, BOT projects, etc., without considering the company's future expansion factors in other countries in Africa, we expect the company's EPS forecasts for 2015 and 2016 to be 0.281 and 0.402 yuan, respectively, corresponding to 59.61 times and 41.69 times the P/E, respectively. Judging from the predicted P/E of the electronic components industry's average of 58.39 times in 2016, there is some room for improvement in the company's valuation, so we gave it an “gain” rating. Risk warning: exchange rate risk; overseas political risk; market competition risk; accounts receivable risk; new product development risk.

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