share_log

润欣科技(300493):国内领先的IC分销商 物联与工控是长期发展动力

招商證券 ·  Dec 4, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Well-known domestic IC distributors: The company is expected to achieve revenue of more than 1 billion yuan in 2015. It is a leading IC distributor in China, representing products from world-famous companies such as Qualcomm, Xinsi, NXP, Sijiaxin, AVX/Kyocera, and Puss, and has customers such as ZTE Kangxun, Gongjin Electronics, and DJI. IC distributors link upstream and downstream to provide financing, logistics and technical solutions: The upstream and downstream asymmetry of the IC industry and the expansion of application fields have created a large number of application technology gaps. IC distributors have become an important part of the IC industry by providing application financing, logistics, and technology solutions. About 30% of large IC manufacturers are sold by distributors, and more than 70% of the share of small IC manufacturers is sold by distributors. Judging from the current pattern, technical support has become the key to the development of the distribution industry, and integrated mergers and acquisitions are also an inevitable rule of industry development. The company's product field has long-term competitiveness: the company's products mainly cover the field of mobile communication, the field of broadband access, the field of consumer electronics, and the field of industrial control, and have room for long-term development; in particular, communication and sensor-related products, the company has certain advantages and benefits more fully in the Internet of Things era; the company focuses on improving technology integration and deep accumulation of services, forming the company's core competitiveness. Fund-raising projects are highly collaborative and enhance long-term competitiveness: The company raised about 172 million dollars to invest in industrial control MCU and ARM embedded system research and development projects, smartphone key component development and promotion projects, and existing product line scale expansion projects. It strengthens the company's layout and competitiveness in the fields of industrial control and consumer electronics respectively, and is highly systematic with existing agent products and service customers, raising the level of long-term competitiveness. In particular, the layout of industrial control was laid out in advance for the next wave of industrial informatization to be carried out domestically. Profit forecast: We forecast net profit attributable to the parent company for 15/16/17 to be 4070/4649/51.57 million yuan, an increase of 6%/14%/11% over the previous year; based on the estimated share capital of 12 million shares, the corresponding EPS is 0.34/0.39/0.43 yuan. Valuation and target price: Our reasonable price range based on the DCF valuation is 6.9-7.3 yuan, corresponding to a 15-year price-earnings ratio of 20-22 times; among listed companies, including Liyuan Information, Yingtang Intelligent Control, and Shenzhen Huaqiang's IC distribution business, the average price-earnings ratio in 2015 was 86.57 times, and the 60% discount ratio corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of 52 times; the average PE for electronic components since 12 years has been 45 times, and the current valuation is about 60 times, 80% discount rate, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 48 times over 15. Based on this, we believe that the company's reasonable valuation is expected to reach 48-52 times, corresponding to 16.28-17.64 yuan. Risk warning: The company's business expansion expectations are low; prices are falling; economic development is declining.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment