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嘉欣丝绸(002404)深度研究:茧丝绸供应链金融:十年积累今朝发力

國金證券 ·  Dec 2, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Investment logic China's cocoon silk accounts for 80% of global production, so there is room for a significant increase in consumption. China dominates the supply of the global cocoon silk industry, and production of cocoons and raw silk has reached about 80% of the world's total production. On the demand side, global per capita consumption is 55 grams, while domestic consumption is only 9 grams. Natural fibers such as cotton and silk are the main beneficiaries of the consumption upgrade. Silk fibers are used in a wider range of applications through blending and other means; in addition, consumption of high-end silk products has also increased in China. The company's exports have rapidly growing customer resources, and domestic sales have opened an omni-channel feast. The company's revenue in 2014 was 2.01 billion yuan, an increase of 10.6%, and net profit of 77 million yuan. 1) Foreign trade is dominated by international high-end customers, and cooperative customers themselves are growing rapidly, such as light luxury groups Michael Kors, ZARA, and Ikea. 2) The four domestic brands, including Jinsanta, complement each other in terms of product categories and customer base. In the future, offline channels will be set up in key cities to launch online B2C business through Taobao, etc., and it will also take two years to set up offline smart experience stores, upgrade orders and storage systems, and actively carry out brand marketing and promotion. In 2015, the sales volume of domestic brands increased by 20% in the interim report. I am optimistic that the company is deeply involved in vertical supply chain finance, and has accumulated strength over the past ten years. The fixed increase plan was released, raising 660 million yuan to invest in supply chain finance. First, the industry does have huge financing needs. Traditional industries have long industrial chains, and small and medium-sized enterprises account for 85%, so it is difficult to solve financing needs through banks. The sum of the trading volume of cocoons and raw silk alone reached 54 billion yuan. Coupled with resale by intermediaries, there was a huge demand for financing. Second, the company has over ten years of business accumulation and related resources. The company has a rich flow of information, has the highest-level Chinese cocoon trading market in the country and the B2B platform Golden Silkworm Network, knows the asset status of enterprises in the industry, and can accurately assess risks. The “Cocoon Silk Bank” financing business with a quota of 100 million yuan was launched in 2002, and has continued since then. Logistics is perfect, and all major production areas in the country have logistics and warehousing networks. Finally, as the industry's only listing platform, it has a low-cost source of capital. Its own capital is about 200 million yuan, banks have low-interest loans of hundreds of millions of yuan, and additional financing of 660 million yuan was issued in October, forming a capital pool of the order of 1 billion yuan. Furthermore, it also has the Jiaxin Small Loan Company, which can also bring in some strategic partners, which can further expand the financing business. There are plenty of fixed assets, and diversified investments will also have considerable benefits: nearly 1,000 acres of land resources such as factories, industrial parks, office buildings, and cocoon stations are up for sale; an IPO of the participating CaiTong Securities can be expected. The main business of investment advice and valuation companies is steadily rising, and the strength of supply chain finance has provided greater flexibility in performance. It is predicted that the EPS for 15-17 will be 0.16, 0.21, and 0.29 yuan, with a target market value of 6.3 billion yuan, covering the increase in holdings rating for the first time. The risk indicates that the fixed increase project has not yet passed the review by the Securities Regulatory Commission; the domestic silk industry's exports are declining.

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