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福安药业(300194):收购只楚强化公司抗生素主业

華泰證券 ·  Jan 3, 2016 17:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Incident: On December 21, 2015, the company announced that it plans to issue shares to acquire 100% of the shares of Yantai Zhichu Pharmaceutical (trading resumed on January 4). Since Zhichu Pharmaceutical currently derives about 80% of its revenue from antibiotics and APIs, this move will strengthen the company's main antibiotic business while also adding some specialty varieties (Zichu Pharmaceutical also has some specialty drugs such as lipoic acid). Furthermore, Zhichu Pharmaceutical promised to complete results of $80 million, 100 million, and $120 million in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively, which will greatly increase the company's net profit level. We expect the company's 2016 exam preparation performance of 216 million. Considering the company's continued mergers and acquisitions expectations, it can give the company a valuation of 40-50 times, corresponding to a market value of 8.6-10.8 billion dollars, and maintain the company's “buy” rating. The acquisition of Zhichu Pharmaceutical will strengthen the company's main antibiotic business: Zhichu Pharmaceutical is currently the largest producer and exporter of gentamicin sulfate in the country. Currently, its APIs account for 80% of the company's revenue, yet the company has always been working in the field of antibiotics, leading the country in aztreonan APIs and formulations, so this acquisition will only improve the company's business layout in the field of antibiotics and enhance the company's overall competitiveness in the field of antibiotics. Furthermore, with the acquisition of Tianheng last year, the company acquired specialty drugs such as glasetron and ondansetron. With this acquisition of Zhichu Pharmaceutical, the company also harvested specialty drugs such as lipoic acid (an auxiliary hypoglycemic drug, the company's main pharmaceutical variety, accounting for about 10% of the company's revenue). This will also further enrich the company's product line and inject momentum into the company's continued growth. Acquisitions are continuing: the company acquired Hubei people in 2013 (special specialty), Ningbo Tianheng (special specialty) in 2014, and Yantai Zhichu (special specialty) in 2014, and once again this year, it won Yantai Zhichu (API+specialty specialty), yet in the next 2-3 years, the company will continue to seize the opportunities of pharmaceutical industry integration (reorganization of drug approvals, continuous flight inspections, and fee control and price reduction gradually become the norm) and continue to carry out acquisitions around the core of “differentiated scarce specialty varieties”. Incentives for company executives are already in place: when the company acquired Ningbo Tianheng in 2014, Chairman Fuan and Tianheng's management team participated in a fixed increase of 400 million companies at a price of 18.38 million. This year, after the stock disaster, Chairman Wang Tianxiang also led company executives to increase their holdings of the company by 100 million yuan (average cost was 15.91). In addition to the chairman and some of the company's executives and core personnel, Zhichu Pharmaceutical, headed by Liu Honghai, will also participate in this fixed increase, showing that the price increase is 1,465, which highlights the increase in price of 1,465 Security management and various acquisition companies' to company Confidence in future development (the company's stock price was 18.95 before the suspension of trading). Profit forecast: We maintain the company's 2015-2017 EPS of 0.27, 0.41, and 0.49 (the original main business was 0.19, 0.22, and 0.26), respectively. Considering mergers and acquisitions, the company's net profit in 2016 will reach 216 million. Considering the company's continued mergers and acquisitions expectations, we can give the company a valuation of 40-50 times, corresponding to a market value of 86-108 billion dollars, and maintain the company's “buy” rating. Risk warning: M&A integration falls short of expectations, M&A progress falls short of expectations

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