share_log

大港股份(002077)点评:商品房销售收入延期确认致2015年业绩下修 坚定看好半导体+军工转型

海通證券 ·  Jan 18, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The 2015 performance forecast was revised downwards. The company issued an announcement to lower the net profit range of 19.2636 million yuan to 308.217 million yuan, as previously predicted in the three-quarter report, to a loss of 15 million yuan to 20 million yuan. The reason for the downward revision of performance was the delayed confirmation of income from commercial housing projects. The company originally planned to complete and deliver some commercial housing projects by the end of 2015 because the relevant licenses were not completed in accordance with the expected time, which affected the project opening time and inspection progress, which in turn affected sales progress, and sales revenue will move to confirmation in the next fiscal year. The delay in confirming the commercial housing business performance will not affect the company's investment value. Prior to the merger and acquisition of Echo, a testing manufacturer specializing in integrated circuits, the company's main business was real estate, new energy, trade and logistics, etc. In 2014, real estate and park development accounted for 76% of the operating profit of the main business. There was a loss in 2015 results due to reasons such as delays in confirming sales revenue for the four major real estate projects under construction and a large amount of impairment preparations for the new energy business. We believe that short-term accounting factors do not affect the long-term investment value of the company. The company is in the process of comprehensive transformation and is expected to become a benchmark for the reform of state-owned enterprises in Jiangsu Province. The merger and acquisition of Ecco is a critical step in the reform of state-owned enterprises. The company's announcement last month to acquire 100% of Ecco's shares is a critical first step. Ecco Semiconductor is a testing service provider that provides integrated circuit wafers, finished product testing, design verification, test adapter design and processing, and overall testing solutions, providing testing services for well-known chip design, manufacturing and packaging companies at home and abroad. Semiconductors are an industry that is currently being vigorously developed in the country. The merger and acquisition of Ecco marks an official entry into the semiconductor testing industry, opening up a new layout and development space. The military industry is expected to achieve a breakthrough. China Science and Technology Dagang, a subsidiary of the company, obtained the qualification of a third-level confidential qualification unit in March 2015. The company was jointly invested and established with the Institute of Semiconductors of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in August 2013. The development and industrialization of laser ranging products is progressing smoothly. It has mastered 30KM rangefinding technology, and 2016 is expected to become a new profit growth point for the company in the future. Firmly optimistic about the semiconductor+military transformation, and maintain the “buy” rating. If we don't consider Ecco's merger and acquisition for the time being, we predict that the company's operating income for 15/16/17 will be 1,293/14.81/1,788 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit attributable to listed companies will be -1884/2004/29.03 million yuan, respectively. If Ecco's merger factors are taken into account, the company's net profit for 16/17 is estimated to be 10454/133.53 million yuan, respectively, and the EPS after maximizing the increase in share capital will be about 0.17/0.22 yuan (the maximum number of additional shares issued may be 203 million shares). The integrated circuit testing industry, which the company's strategic transformation trend is improving, and the integrated circuit testing industry is heavily supported by the government, and there is huge room for further development in the integrated circuit field in the future. The military industry is also expected to break through in 2016. Maintaining the “buy” rating, the target price is 25.5 yuan (corresponding to 150X in '16, market value of 15.3 billion). Risk warning: Uncertainty about the progress of the explosion of industry demand and the increase in production capacity of other domestic companies.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment