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大港股份(002077)深度报告:半导体+军工双轮驱动快速成长 国企改革迈出坚实一步

海通證券 ·  Dec 30, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Joining Dalu Airlines and setting up a joint venture, the Chinese University of Science and Technology to enter the military industry. The company carried out state-owned assets reform through the location advantage of the Zhenjiang New Area. A joint venture, Jiangsu Dalu Aviation Industry Development Co., Ltd. was established to integrate aerospace related industry resources and assets related to Dalu Airport to create an integrated platform for the aerospace industry. The company received approval indicating that the Chinese University of Science and Technology has obtained a three-level confidentiality qualification for weapons and equipment research and production units, laying the foundation for it to enter the military product field and explore the military market. Acquiring Aiko Semiconductor, the state-owned enterprise reform continues. Dagang Co., Ltd. plans to issue shares and pay cash to purchase 100% of Aiko Semiconductor's shares. Aiko Semiconductor is a testing service provider that provides integrated circuit wafer testing, finished product testing, design verification, test adapter design and processing, and overall testing solutions. It has a competitive advantage in the field of RF chip testing, has strong RF solution engineering development, new product verification capabilities, and continuous innovation R&D capabilities, and provides testing services for well-known domestic and foreign chip companies. The company's move marks its formal entry into the semiconductor testing industry. Independent third-party testing companies will see rapid growth. Driven by national industrial policies, China is taking on the background of a general trend in global semiconductor production capacity, and the testing industry throughout the integrated circuit manufacturing process will usher in high growth. Since compared to the traditional “package-test” one-stop model, independent third-party testing companies have economies of scale and learning curves, and at the same time have the advantage of information security, professional independent third-party testing companies may become mainstream in the future. Aiko is expected to become a leading company in the integrated circuit testing industry. The company is located in the Yangtze River Delta, an area where integrated circuit companies are concentrated. It already has stable business cooperation with major domestic packaging companies, and has clear geographical advantages. The company's technical advantages have brought the company a high gross profit margin, and this acquisition has also solved the capital bottleneck for Aiko, and the company is expected to become a leader in the integrated circuit testing industry. Give it a “buy” rating. Without considering the current merger and acquisition, we predict that the company's revenue for 15/16/17 will be 1,274/1,466/1,774 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit attributable to listed companies will be -4329/2004/29.03 million yuan, respectively. If you consider the combined factors of Aiko, the company's net profit for 15/16/17 is estimated to be 2471/10454/133.53 million yuan, respectively. After maximizing the share capital increase, the EPS is about 0.04/0.17/0.22 yuan (the maximum number of shares issued may be 203 million shares). The company's strategic transformation trend is improving, and the integrated circuit testing industry is heavily supported by the government, and there is huge room for further development in the integrated circuit field. In addition, the holding subsidiary China University of Science and Technology has obtained a third-level confidentiality qualification for weapons and equipment research and production units, laying the foundation for it to enter the military product field, and it is expected that a breakthrough will be achieved in the military industry business. Integrated circuits+military industry are a strong driving force for the company's rapid future development. We gave the company a “buy” rating, and the target price was 25.5 yuan (corresponding to a 16-year market value of 150 x 15.3 billion yuan). Risk warning: Uncertainty about the progress of the industry's demand explosion and the increase in production capacity of other domestic companies.

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