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精华制药(002349)年报点评:业绩高速增长 格局已经打开

華泰證券 ·  Feb 3, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Incidents: Disclosure of the 2015 annual report, full year revenue, net profit, and net profit after deduction were 780 million, 78 million, and 76 million yuan respectively, up 35.06%, 97.83%, and 193.53%, respectively, and EPS of 0.30 yuan, in line with expectations; disclosure of the 2015 profit distribution plan, which is 1 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares transferred to 5 shares (tax included). Comment: The operation is high quality, and high growth is already in sight. Revenue and profit increased significantly in 2015. Looking at the breakdown, revenue from traditional Chinese medicine formulations increased 4.94%. Due to major product price increases (price increases for Wang's Baochi pills and Ji Desheng snake drugs during the reporting period) combined with a reduction in unit consumption (price reduction of raw materials, cost reduction), gross margin increased by 6.37 pp, which is expected to increase net profit by more than 10 million yuan over the same period last year; revenue from chemical raw materials and intermediates increased by 28.41% and gross margin increased by 4.28 pp. In addition to its own steady growth, Dongli's enterprise management merger is also a reason; Revenue increased by 13.55%, gross margin increased by 2.69 pp, the main product, the dioxane ring, grew steadily, and the company's strength in the Chinese medicine industry chain was actively built; revenue from Chinese herbal medicines and Chinese medicine tablets increased by 98.54%, and gross margin increased slightly by 0.73 pp. This part is mainly due to a sharp increase in Chinese herbal medicine trade. Unlike previous trade models, the company's Chinese herbal medicine trade gradually began to revolve around authentic medicinal herbs processed without sulfurization. In essence, structural optimization and business collaboration have been achieved, and the company's strength in the Chinese medicine industry chain is expected to further improve in the future. The company's financial expenses during the reporting period were mainly due to a sharp drop of 257.05% in interest income from capital raised, resulting in a net inflow of 11.05 million yuan, which is also one reason for the sharp increase in profit; sales expenses and management expenses increased reasonably, increasing by 17.06% and 23.81%, respectively. Dongli Enterprise Management has exceeded its performance promises and is looking forward to the strength of traditional Chinese medicine tablets. Dongli Enterprise Management announced in December that in 2015, Dongli Enterprise Management promised to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of no less than 52 million yuan after deduction, actual completion of 59.09 million yuan, easy achievement of the target, and consolidated profit of 3.498 million yuan. It is expected that it will maintain a rapid growth trend in the future, contributing 65-70 million yuan in 2016. The company invested in the establishment of Baohetang Company in Longxi to promote non-vulcanized Chinese herbal medicines and tablet processing technology with local medicinal materials. It has not contributed to performance in 2015, but as the project progresses, it will gradually become a new profit engine for the company. Vertical integration, a broad pattern has opened up. The company initially formed three sectors: proprietary Chinese medicine preparations and Chinese medicine tablets, chemical raw materials and pharmaceutical intermediates, biopharmaceuticals, and research and development. In the future, we will continue to build traditional Chinese medicine brands and develop sulfur-free tablets to lead standards; invest in Kadmon to actively expand the long-term layout of biopharmaceuticals; at the same time, the company has expectations of continued epitaxial expansion and is actively achieving leapfrog development through epitaxial expansion. A broad pattern of future development has opened up. Valuation ratings: The company's performance is expected to maintain high growth. Considering Dongli's enterprise management merger factors, the company's EPS for 16-18 is expected to be 0.64, 0.85, and 1.06 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 60, 45, and 37 times, respectively, maintaining the buying rating. Risk warning: The progress of the sulfur-free large-scale Chinese herbal medicine base project is falling short of expectations.

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