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大连友谊(000679)业绩预告点评:减包袱 促转型

華泰證券 ·  Feb 1, 2016 00:00  · Researches

According to the company's 2015 performance forecast, net profit loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 180 to 200 million yuan, down 418.83% to 454.25% from the same period last year, and EPS losses of 0.51 to 56 million yuan. Accrued impairment provisions were the main reason for the company's losses in 2015. Considering the downturn in the real estate market, there is a clear trend of price for volume. The company has prepared impairment preparations for the Dalian Furama International Project, the Shenyang Friendship Times Square project, and the Handan Friendship Times Square project. Combined with the company's non-operating income of about 180 million yuan in retirement compensation this year, it is estimated that asset impairment preparations of about 500 million yuan were calculated this year, accounting for about 6% of total assets. The larger calculation of asset impairment preparations is not only due to predicting the situation in the real estate industry, but also reducing the burden of subsequent financial transformation on the company's prudent risk management principles. The direction of financial transformation is clear, and the restructured assets are of excellent quality. The company plans to issue shares from two counterparties, Wuxin Investment Group and Wuxin Management Company, to purchase all of their total related assets involving debt financing, that is, 100% of the shares of Wuhan Small and Medium Guarantee Company, 90% of the shares of Wuhan Venture Guarantee Company, 100% of the shares of Wuhan Xinfa Investment, 18% of the shares of Wuxin Small Loan Company, 100% of the shares of Wuhan Credit Company, 90% of the shares of Wu Xin Rating Company, and 70% of the shares of Hanxin Internet Finance. After the restructuring is completed, Wuxin Investment Group expects to directly hold 57.87% of the company's shares, Wu Xin Investment Group and its co-actor, Wu Xin Management Company, will collectively hold 64.93% of the shares in the listed company, and Wuxin Investment Group will become the controlling shareholder of the listed company. The company cooperated with state-owned enterprises under the Wuhan State-owned Assets Administration Commission to acquire a basket of financial companies, and the direction of financial transformation was clear. Furthermore, based on Wuxin Investment Group's state-owned assets background and many years of risk control experience, its assets have maintained good profitability. In particular, the guarantee and credit sectors have maintained an ROE level of at least 16% despite the slowdown in macroeconomic growth. Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Considering that the company's supporting financing increased the capital of Wuxin Guarantee Group by 2 billion yuan, which greatly supports its profit, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2016 to 2018 will be about 6.57, 9.27, and 1,232 billion yuan. Considering the transformation and development brought about by financial asset injection and the increase in Hanjin's business volume, it is estimated that the company has a market value of about 18.5 to 20 billion yuan in 2016, a share capital of 1,288 billion shares, and a current market value of 14.5 billion yuan (examining asset restructuring and supporting financing), approximately 25% ~ 35% upside. Risk warning: Asset restructuring and supporting financing plans have fallen short of expectations.

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