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丽鹏股份(002374)点评:未来潜在的中国最大的白酒二维码营销企业

東吳證券 ·  Jan 19, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The hidden champion in the bottle cap market. 1) The company is the largest manufacturer of anti-counterfeiting bottle caps, with a 10% market share of bottle caps, four times that of the second largest in the industry. The company's main customers are second- and third-tier liquor companies. As consumption upgrades, popular liquor consumption will rise further, and the traditional business has been stable for a long time. Furthermore, in the future, the company will actively expand to downstream customers such as pharmaceuticals, condiments, beverages, etc., and the market share is expected to increase to 30% after 5 years. 2) Aluminum anti-counterfeiting covers are low in cost, have strong anti-counterfeiting functions, and are easy to recycle, and are the mainstream of future applications. Judging from Chinese and foreign comparisons, there is room for growth of more than 3 times. Aluminum plate composite anti-counterfeiting printing is an intermediate step in the production of aluminum anti-counterfeiting bottle caps, and financial and technical barriers are high. In this regard, the company's equipment strength is comparable to that of its foreign manufacturing peers. Currently, aluminum sheets occupy 30% of the domestic industry's market share. The gross margin of aluminum bottle caps is high, and as the proportion of aluminum caps increases, the company has fully benefited. “Bottle Cap Connect” creates the largest QR code marketing company for liquor in China. The company's customers include the vast majority of liquor companies other than high-end liquor companies such as Maotai and Wuliangye. It has more than 700 customers and produces 2 billion bottle caps. Through the QR code information built into the bottle cap, the company can obtain massive import data. Based on such a large customer base, the company can implement the IoT tracking model through clients such as mobile apps. Under the traditional liquor distribution model, phenomena such as counterfeiting and collusion are repeatedly prohibited. At the same time, there are many channel levels, high price increases, interaction with consumers is weak, and marketing effectiveness is poor. However, after scanning the code, consumers can not only check the authenticity of the product, but also accumulate membership points to make mobile payments when placing orders on mobile phones. By accumulating customer data, the company can analyze consumer behavior and tailor accurate marketing plans for upstream enterprises. Companies can profit by charging upstream companies anti-counterfeiting fees and mobile advertising fees. At present, the company has established a joint venture subsidiary to introduce Lianjian Optoelectronics, which has rich experience and resources in the field of mobile marketing, and its accurate mass media, which will help accelerate the interconnection of bottle caps, and the company is expected to become the largest QR code marketing company for liquor in China. Acquire Huayu Garden to achieve the development of the “bottle cap+garden” dual main business. The company completed the acquisition of Huayu Garden in '14, and realized the dual main business development of anti-counterfeiting bottle caps+landscaping. The municipal landscaping market is worth hundreds of billion dollars, and the investment demand for the soil restoration industry can reach the level of 10 trillion dollars. Huayu Garden is one of the few landscape enterprises in China that also has garden construction, planning and design, environmental pollution control (ecological restoration), and landscaping management services. It has participated in projects with high popularity and large contract amounts. The company's fixed increase plan has now been approved, and the injection of about 360 million dollars will strengthen the company's ability to acquire projects. Huayu Garden promised net profit not less than 1.05 yuan, 130 million yuan, 1.69 yuan and 198 million yuan from 2014 to 2017 after deduction. Huayu Garden's sound qualifications, excellent technology and rich project experience will guarantee rapid future performance growth. Profit forecast: The company is the absolute leader in the bottle cap industry, and is expected to continue to increase its market share through horizontal mergers and acquisitions and downstream expansion in the future. As the proportion of aluminum anti-counterfeiting covers gradually increases, the company's gross margin is expected to continue to increase. A large customer base can be used as an Internet big data portal, and the company will launch an interconnected value-added model. However, after the acquisition of Huayu Garden, the company operated two main businesses, and the gambling agreement guaranteed profit margin. Considering additional distribution and dilution factors, it is estimated that the 2015-2017 EPS will be 0.38/0.53/0.64 yuan, respectively, giving the 2016 30XPE, corresponding to the target price of 15.9 yuan, a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Consumption of second-tier and third-tier liquor continues to decline; downstream beverage, medical and other customer development progress falls short of expectations.

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