Main points of investment
China's leading characteristic polypeptide preparation production enterprises: the company has maintained a good operating condition after listing, and its sales performance has maintained growth for a long time. It is estimated that the operating income will reach 230 million yuan in 2015, an increase of 42.62% over the same period last year, and the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies will reach 64.57 million yuan, an increase of 9.57% over the same period last year. Ningbo Shuangcheng construction project has entered the construction investment stage, and the acquisition of 46% stake in Hangzhou Australia and Asia has led to a substantial increase in the company's management and financial expenses, which makes the company's net profit growth lag behind the growth rate of sales revenue.
The main products have obvious competitive advantages in the market, and the products under research contain potential: at present, the company has become one of the backbone enterprises in China's chemical synthetic polypeptide drug industry, and the leading product thymus Faxin is a large variety of immunomodulatory drugs independently developed in our country. the national market sales reached more than 6 billion yuan. The new thymus market has a good competitive environment, benefiting from hundreds of billions of market space for chronic liver disease and tumor treatment, and keeps growing for a long time. Competitive thymopentin has been seriously affected by bidding and price reduction, and thymus Faxin is expected to seize the market share of thymopentin. Essenapeptide (preparation + API) is expected to be approved for production within this year, bivalirudin (preparation + API) has also entered the declared production stage, and eteba peptide has entered the clinical trial stage. The listing of new varieties will improve the company's product structure and is expected to promote a new round of growth in the company's performance.
Improve production technology and technology, participate in Hangzhou Australia and Asia: many of the company's production workshops have successfully passed the GMP certification. The company cooperates with Anbo and other well-known R & D enterprises at home and abroad to carry out R & D outsourcing or project guidance, and has completed the process confirmation of 6 varieties such as octreotide. The leading product of the company, thymopentin for injection, has reached the level of the original drug after process upgrading. The company acquires 46% of the shares in Hangzhou Australia and Asia and has advanced freeze-drying production technology and management experience, which can reduce the company's production costs and obtain long-term equity investment income. It is highly expected to continue to purchase the remaining shares of Hangzhou Australia and Asia in the future.
Epitaxial M & A + Endogenous expansion to create a new platform for tumor products: the company plans to acquire 74.9% of each of Germany's Lyomark and Bendalis pharmaceutical companies through 70 million to 200 million yuan. The German acquisition project can not only greatly enrich the company's tumor product line, but also lay the foundation for the future preparation export. The company sets up Ningbo Shuangcheng wholly-owned subsidiary to increase the R & D and production of antineoplastic drugs and oral solid preparation products. Ningbo Shuangcheng will become the production base of Essena peptide, antineoplastic drugs and other new varieties in the future.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company is expected to achieve net profit of 65 million, 87 million, 111 million and 150 million from 2015 to 2018, with corresponding EPS of 0.15,0.21,0.26,0.36 and PE of 64.4,47.9,37.5 and 27.6 times, respectively. The company's main polypeptide drug business has developed steadily and healthily, the Shuangcheng construction project in Ningbo promotes endogenous growth, and the expectation of extension mergers and acquisitions such as German overseas projects and Hangzhou, Australia and Asia is strong. We recommend the "overweight" rating for the first time.
Risk hints: drug policy price reduction risk; new drug research and development risk; extension M & A progress is lower than expected, commercial impairment risk.