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中奥到家(1538.HK)深度研究:独立第三方物管公司 管家服务和O2O业务是主要看点

廣發證券 ·  Jan 21, 2016 00:00  · Researches

A domestic independent third-party property management company that provides high-quality property management services with a unique butler service, Zhongao Home is a domestic independent property management company. In 2014, it ranked 9th among the “Top 100 Property Service Companies in China” and 3rd among independent property management companies. By the end of 2014, the company had contracted to manage 149 properties in 27 cities in 11 provinces across the country, with a total construction area of 31.4 million square meters under contract management and a total calculated gross floor area of 12.6 million square meters. In 2014, the company's total revenue was 361.2 million yuan, with an average compound annual growth rate of 35.3% in the past three years; in 2014, the company's net profit was 55.9 million yuan, and the compound annual growth rate for the past three years reached 109.0%. From 2012 to 2014, the company's gross margin grew from 19.0% to 33.4%, and net margin increased from 6.5% to 15.5%. As one of the company's most unique business strategies among many property management companies, the company has more than 700 housekeepers to provide butler services for the vast majority of its properties, and can provide more than 180 value-added services in addition to normal property services. The butler service not only increased the satisfaction of residents, but also contributed to the improvement of the company's financial indicators. Property management companies have significant advantages in operating O2O platforms. The organic combination of “Love to Home” and butler service is more competitive. In June 2015, the company launched the first officially operated O2O platform “Love to Home”. The O2O platform operated by property management companies is a “people-oriented business” business model. It can integrate product/service providers with other third party vertical segments, and has the potential to grow into a large platform. The business strategy of the “Love to Home” platform is to integrate consumers and producers with two “1+N” models, expand the number of users with a “Belt and Road” expansion strategy, and at the same time use various incentives to increase the benefits of all participants, and encourage more merchants, residents, and third-party properties to enter the platform. With the inherent attributes of independent property management companies, Sino-Austrian Home has an advantage over other O2O platforms; compared with other property management companies, the combination of butler service and O2O business is also a bit higher, and has a lot of room for business imagination, explores customer needs through proactive services, and provides efficient and intelligent services. As of December 31, 2015, the iArrive Platform covered 1,111 residential properties in Hangzhou, an increase of approximately 1,022% over 99 in the third quarter, of which 1,103 were managed by third-party property management companies. The number of registered users was about 179,500, an increase of about 396% over the 36,200 in the third quarter. Of these, about 64% were monthly active users and 7% were daily active users. As of December 31, 2015, there were 1,273 cooperative merchants, an increase of about 78% over 715 in the third quarter. The company's financial situation is good, and there is still room for improvement in profitability. Compared with Cai Life, another property management company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the profitability at this stage is worse than that of Lottery Life due to the main use of the package management system, but considering the company's business characteristics, it can be expected that the company's profitability will still have room to improve. The company's cost control mechanism is reasonable, financial leverage is low, liquidity is abundant, and capital turnover efficiency is high. Investment Proposals As a leading independent third-party property company in China, the highlight of China and Austria is that, on the one hand, its traditional property management business provides the company with a steady stream of net cash flow with steady growth, and on the other hand, there is a large market space for the development of its manager+O2O platform business. We expect the 2015-2017 EPS to be 0.10 yuan, 0.14, and 0.19 yuan, respectively. Referring to the valuation level of companies in the same industry and the predicted stock price of the DCF model, a reasonable value for China and Austria is HK$2.10. Risk warning: The complaint rate for property management services has increased, the collection rate of property management service fees has declined, and the progress of community life service platforms has fallen below expectations. Complex interests within the community affected the promotion of O2O platforms, and there was a disconnect between online and offline during platform construction.

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