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大连友谊(000679)点评:借力金控 华丽转身

華泰證券 ·  Feb 22, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: Dalian Friendship plans to issue shares to Wuxin Investment Group and Wuxin Management Company to purchase their total holdings of 100% of the shares of Wuxin Guarantee Group, 100% of the shares of Wuhan Small and Medium Guarantee Company, 90% of the shares of Wuhan Venture Guarantee Company, 100% of the shares of Wuhan Credit Company, 100% of the shares of Wuhan Credit Company, 90% of the shares of Wu Xin Rating Company, and 70% of the shares of Hanxin Internet Finance. The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2016/2017/2018 is not less than 63.781 million yuan, 75271 10,000 yuan, 862.36 million yuan. Transform finance across the board and turn corruption into magic. The company acquired eight financial companies under Wuhan Finance, including guarantee, credit, credit reporting, and internet finance, etc., and completely transformed finance from traditional department stores and real estate. In the future, Wu Xin Investment Group will hold 64.93% of the shares, and Wuhan Financial Holdings will be the actual controller, so it is not ruled out that there is still a possibility of continuing capital increases. Wuxin Guarantee Group and Wuhan Xinfa Investment are the main profitable companies in the underlying assets. The supporting financing was used to increase the capital of Wuxin Guarantee Group by 200% compared to its original registered capital. Wuxin Guarantee's state-owned assets background and many years of risk control experience have maintained a high profitability ROE of 16%, and the capital increase will help increase its contribution to the parent company's performance. The margin of safety is high, and there is plenty of room for performance. The company's supporting financing price is 11.02 yuan/share. In addition, target companies such as Wu Xin Investment from 2016 to 2018 contributed no less than 63/75/860 million yuan, 33 times PE's corresponding share price of 16/19/22 yuan. The margin of safety is high, and the promised performance is relatively conservative. Currently, the actual profitability of the company's only guarantee and credit sector should exceed this, so there is plenty of room for performance improvement. The market value in circulation is small, and the stock price is very flexible. The original share capital is 356 million shares, the issued shares purchased assets correspond to 660 million shares (sales limit of three years), and ancillary financing corresponds to 272 million shares (sales limit for one year). That is, after this asset restructuring, the company's market value in circulation accounted for about 27%. After deducting the shares held by the former shareholders of Dalian Friendship, restructuring and supporting financing, the actual circulation volume was about 3 billion yuan, accounting for only 19% of the total market value, and the stock price increased very flexibly. The goal of financial transformation is clear, and the integration of financial assets will accelerate greater synergy in the financial industry chain in the future. Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Considering that the company's ancillary financing increased the capital of Wuxin Guarantee Group by 2 billion yuan, which greatly supports its profit, it is conservatively estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2016 to 2018 was about 6.57, 9.27, and 1,232 billion yuan. Considering the transformation and development brought about by the injection of financial assets and the increase in the business volume of Hanjin, PE30 to 35, the company is expected to have a market value of about 20 to 23 billion yuan, a share capital of 1,288 billion shares, and a current market value of 17 billion yuan (examining asset restructuring and supporting financing), there is room for growth of about 35%. The current stock price is 13.25 yuan, and the reasonable price range is 15.5 to 18 yuan. Risk warning: Asset restructuring and supporting financing plans have fallen short of expectations.

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