Main points of investment:
Dewey Video achieved a performance inflection point in 2015, with full-year results slightly lower than expected. On January 29, 2016, Helitai issued a performance forecast. It is expected that the 2015 return net profit will increase by 192.10% and 220.01% compared with the same period last year, with a corresponding profit range of 8.62 million-11.42 million yuan. Dewey Video lost 9.36 million in 2014 and is expected to turn a profit in 2015 and successfully achieve a performance inflection point. Dewey Video's 2015 net profit growth is mainly due to Smart City and laser display business, the provision of bad debts of accounts receivable has been greatly reduced, and the full-year net profit is slightly lower than our previous forecast of 28 million yuan.
After the completion and acceptance of the smart city project, the laser display began to increase the volume. The company has started large-scale sales of laser display film projectors and engineering machines, and has achieved nearly 20 million of sales by the end of the third quarter. At the same time, it has completed the research and development of 6000 lumen single DLP and 12000 lumen 3DLP integrated prototypes. The company's laser display product market is expected to be in full swing in the future. In addition, the company's Smart City large contract project was completed and accepted in the fourth quarter, with a total profit of 2456-27.87 million yuan for Q4.
It is expected that the IDC business will achieve phased results next year, and it is expected to tap the value of big data in the future. The company's IDC business combines the advantages of low cost of electricity, low cost of policy and low cost of optical fiber rental. The company's IDC data center is located in Ordos, where the regional electricity price can be as low as 0.20 yuan / kWh, while the electricity price in Shanghai and other cities can reach 0.8 yuan / kWh. Dewey Video and Chengyi Times signed an exclusive agreement for the use of the backbone network. It is expected that Dewey Video will rent the network to reduce the average monthly traffic fee to 22,000 yuan / G, while the industry average fee is about 100,000 yuan / G. In the future, the company is expected to use IDC-based data to target the SaaS level of big data mining and operating business. It is estimated that the company will have 8000 cabinets in 2016, with revenue of 624 million, accounting for 40.67% of the main business, with a gross profit of 250 million.
Downgrade the profit forecast for 2015-2017 and maintain the "buy" rating. The revenue of the Smart City project fell short of expectations, and the corresponding revenue and profit were reduced. The company's net profit of 2015-2017 is expected to reach 0.10,1.86 and 297 million yuan, with a downward adjustment of 64.3%, 25.0% and 18.6%, and earnings per share of 0.03,0.62 and 0.99 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 430x, 21x and 13x in 2015-2017, and the company is expected to turn losses into profits by relying on smart city business in 2016 and 2017. due to the greater flexibility of laser display and IDC business performance in 2015 and 2017, it is expected to further tap the value of IDC data in the future, and the company's core logic of growth will remain unchanged and maintain its "buy" rating.