Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating and maintain the target price of 76.04 yuan. Taking into account that the company has more listed or listed new third board projects to withdraw, the EPS for 2016-2018 will be increased to 0.79 0.94 EPS 1.08 yuan (the previous forecast for 2016-2017 0.78 shock 0.84 yuan). In the future, the company will form three modules: PE investment, VC investment, real estate investment and fixed income investment. At present, the prosperity of the PE/VC industry is high, first, China is vigorously promoting "mass entrepreneurship and innovation", and good investment projects will emerge; second, with the construction of a multi-level capital market and the implementation of the registration system, the project exit channel will be more smooth. The company has a very strong ability of innovation and execution, and as the only A-share listing platform of Jiuding Group, there is the expectation of asset integration.
Successful transformation, the company's 2015 performance is beautiful, basically in line with market expectations. In 2015, the net profit attributed to the owner of the parent company was 286 million yuan, an increase of 279.28% over the same period last year. This is mainly due to the increase in the scope of the company's consolidated statements, which increased the operating results of Kunwu Jiuding in December 2015. And during the transition period (June-November 2015), the income and value added of Kunwu Jiuding were included in the company's non-operating income.
The IRR of the company withdrawing from the project has declined, and it is expected that the IRR will drop to 20-25% in the future. The future will be a process of repayment by volume. At present, the CSRC has accepted the 12 billion increase in the company's fixed increase. After the completion of the fixed increase, the size of the company's managed fund is expected to increase quickly. By the end of 2015, the cumulative paid-in scale / investment scale of the company's managed equity fund was 27.459 billion yuan / 23.704 billion yuan, the cumulative principal of complete withdrawal of the project was 2.898 billion yuan, and the comprehensive IRR was 29.08%. The new paid-in / investment scale of the equity fund managed in 2015 is 7.459 billion yuan / 6.874 billion yuan, the principal of the complete withdrawal project in 2015 is 938 million yuan, and the comprehensive IRR is 26.43%. By the end of 2015, the investment principal of projects that have been listed and listed on the new third board but have not yet been completely withdrawn is 5.664 billion yuan.
Risk hint: the promotion of the company's future value needs to be completed with the help of capital market forces, and the risk of future regulatory approval is the core risk factor affecting the company's value.