Main viewpoints
1. The sales of new energy buses are growing rapidly, and the inflection point of the main business performance has already appeared.
The company's net profit in the first three quarters of 2015 is-59.827 million yuan (after deducting-169.262 million yuan). This performance pre-increase shows that the annual return net profit is 113.685 million yuan (after deducting non-40.935 million yuan), that is, the company's return net profit in the fourth quarter is about 17351.2 million yuan. it is the highest in a single quarter in the past three years, and the inflection point of the main business performance has been established. The performance reversal is closely related to the annual sales of 1705 new energy buses, which reached an all-time high (of which 1498 were sold in the fourth quarter). The company has successfully completed the transformation from traditional bus manufacturers to new energy.
two。 The acquisition of Eoneng Electronics cuts into the battery management system (BMS) business, and the battery system integration (pack) business helps the company achieve a triple jump.
Through a non-public offering, the company acquired a 70.4% stake in the domestic BMS leader Huizhou Yineng Electronics to cut into the BMS business as the first jump, joined with Samsung SDI to cut into the pack business with greater market space as the second hop, and realized the higher market competitiveness of new energy passenger cars and logistics vehicles through the higher-than-average performance and lower price of the battery system. The third jump is in line with the transformation and upgrading of the company's business. It also provides a solid foundation for the company to accumulate experience in battery system development and cut into the largest new energy passenger car market.
3. Short-term policy adjustment does not change the long-term trend, the company's pack development strength advantage to ensure a leading position. At present, the concern of the market to the company is that the pack business of Yineng Electronics is mainly for passenger cars, and at the present stage, it mainly uses the ternary batteries supplied by Samsung SDI, and as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology suspends the acceptance of ternary battery buses to be included in the promotion catalogue of new energy vehicles, the pack business of Yineng Electronics will be greatly affected. We have different views on this: (1) the advantage of 100 million energy lies in the development ability of BMS and pack. After nearly 8 years of technology upgrading, the performance and consistency of its BMS products are obviously better than those of similar products, which is also the key for Samsung to choose it as a pack partner. Therefore, Yineng can completely maintain the pack order of passenger cars by purchasing domestic high-quality lithium iron phosphate battery products to avoid the impact of this incident. (2) another major customer of Yineng pack products is logistics vehicles. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's approval of the application of ternary batteries in logistics vehicles and the explosive growth of pure electric logistics vehicles in 2016 means that a considerable part of the company's business in 2016 has not been materially affected. (3) "suspension" is not a "ban". Market demand determines that the time for policy adjustment will not be too long. We believe that whether it is top-down performance planning (energy density of single battery reaches 350Wh/kg in 2020), fine-tuning of subsidy rules for 16-20 years (introducing Ekg index), or consumer demand for higher mileage from the bottom up, ternary batteries are still the best technical solution for new energy vehicle power batteries at this stage, including buses. The company's accumulation in the development of ternary battery system will help to maintain the company's first-mover advantage in the rapid growth of business in the future.
3. Investment advice:
The acquisition of Yineng Electronics cuts into the battery management system business, and the battery system integration business helps the company achieve a triple jump. Regardless of dilution, we expect the company's eps for 15-16 years to be 0.18,0.34 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 59, 32 times (performance may be up-regulated), recommended!
4. Risk Tips:
The shipments of the production line of the cooperative battery enterprises are lower than expected.
The demand of battery system in cooperative vehicle enterprises is lower than expected.