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大通燃气(000593)深度研究:安全边际足 产业空间大

安信證券 ·  Mar 9, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The main business is stable, and the advantages of valuation and market value are obvious: the company's main business is urban pipeline gas and retail business. Among them, in the commercial business, the company has a property of nearly 90,000 square meters in the core area of Chengdu. The revaluation value is about 2.5 billion yuan when estimated by referring to the prices of surrounding properties of 30,000 to 10,000 square meters; in the natural gas business, the company owns the concession of Jiangxi Shangrao and Dalian Wafang gas, and is expected to contribute about 70-80 million yuan in annual profits. The company's market value was only 3.6 billion yuan after the additional issuance was completed, and the valuation and market value advantages were obvious. The additional distribution meeting is imminent, and capital operation continues: the company announced a fixed increase plan in April 2015 to raise 565 million yuan by issuing shares at a price of 7.18 yuan/share to investors such as Chase Group and employee stock ownership plans. This fixed increase once again rationalizes the company's interest mechanism (Chase Group's shareholding ratio increased to 40.9%), and also provides a foundation for subsequent external expansion, and the participants in the employee stock ownership plan are all company executives and business backbone, demonstrating the management team and chairman's confidence in future development. Furthermore, in the past two years, Chase Group has gradually increased its shareholding ratio through two fixed growth plans, showing that the company is flexible in thinking and active in operation, and that future development is also worth looking forward to. Active transformation of natural gas, small market capitalization and high flexibility targets: In the face of deepening smog and gas price market-based reforms, the development of the natural gas industry has great potential. The company actively intervenes in the natural gas industry chain by acquiring Schneng Luojiang Natural Gas, establishing an investment fund, and participating in the cornerstone investment of Asian American energy, and has proposed plans to develop oil and gas resources, storage and transportation business, develop distributed energy, multiple energy supply systems, and downstream distribution business through acquisition and integration, etc., gradually expand to the entire natural gas industry chain. Chase, as the company with the smallest market capitalization of A-shares mainly in the natural gas business, has extensive experience in actual controller resources and capital management, and is optimistic about the future integration of its industrial chain. Investment suggestions: The company has a strong desire to transform the natural gas industry, is rich in resources, and has sufficient experience in capital management. The 2015-2017 EPS is expected to be 0.09, 0.21, and 0.24, and the corresponding PE is 114, 48, and 44. The company's market value is small, flexible, and there are many future prospects. The target price for 6 months is 15 yuan, giving it a “buy-A” rating. Risk warning: The development of the natural gas industry is below expectations, and the review progress of the non-public offering plan is lower than expected.

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