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松发股份(603268)年报点评:自主品牌建设带动内销增长 产业投资基金助力外延扩张

華泰證券 ·  Mar 17, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The company released its 2015 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 291 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.23%; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 36.8865 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.23%; and earnings per share was 0.45 yuan/share, a year-on-year decrease of 33.33%. Continued sluggish demand led to a decline in performance, and performance is expected to improve after the industry recovers. The decline in the company's revenue in 2015 was mainly due to weak revenue growth for daily-use porcelain and a sharp decline in sales of fine porcelain; at the same time, revenue from ceramic wine bottles also had a certain impact on revenue due to shrinking downstream demand and declining orders. Overall, however, against the backdrop of slow global economic recovery and the overall weakness of China's ceramic industry, the decline in revenue from the company's main product, daily-use porcelain, was not significant. In the future, with the gradual recovery of the peripheral economy, the situation in the industry is expected to improve. The sharp decline in profit is mainly due to the company's increased independent brand marketing and channel construction efforts, which raised the sales expenses ratio from 4.5% to 5.7% and the management fee ratio from 8.7% to 11%; we believe that in the future, as the influence of independent brands increases, the related expenses rate is expected to gradually decrease. Independent brand building is gradually being implemented, and the domestic sales business is expected to continue to expand. In recent years, due to continued weakness in overseas OEM demand, the company has gradually strengthened domestic sales market development and independent brand building to enhance resilience to risks. During the reporting period, the company focused on improving product quality, enriching the product line, and actively broadening new channels such as e-commerce to strengthen product penetration; in December 2015, the company joined Bezao Technology and entered the field of social e-commerce operations. Thanks to the efforts of various parties, the company's domestic sales revenue in 2015 was 104 million yuan, up 46% from the same period; domestic revenue accounted for 36% of total revenue, up 13 percentage points from last year. We believe that with the continuous construction of brands and channels and the gradual completion of offline ceramic experience centers, the company's domestic sales business is expected to become a profit driver in the future, driving the continuous growth of daily-use porcelain sales revenue. Actively embrace “Internet +” and cultivate new impetus for performance growth. As mentioned in the company's development strategy, in addition to deepening its main business and further consolidating and increasing its brand market share, the company will also actively explore new business areas, strive to form new profit growth points, and provide shareholders with better return on investment. The “Songfa Chuangying Fund” established by the company with its own capital of 800 million yuan is committed to equity mergers and acquisitions in emerging industries such as “Internet +”. As the company continues to accumulate experience in industrial investment, potential excellent investment targets are expected to become a new driving force for performance growth. Profit forecast: Excluding epitaxial expectations, we expect the company's EPS in 2016-2018 to be 0.60, 0.73, and 0.83 yuan/share, respectively; the corresponding PE values for the current stock price are 63X, 52X, and 46X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Independent brand promotion falls short of expectations; the continued decline in the economy falls short of expectations.

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