share_log

中房地产(000736)年报点评:业绩喜忧参半 静待资产注入靴子落

安信證券 ·  Mar 20, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Incidents: The company announced its 2015 annual report and achieved revenue of 1,112 billion yuan in 2015, up 57% year on year; realized net profit of 28.42 million yuan, down 62.43% year on year; basic earnings per share of 0.1 yuan, down 60% year on year. Performance was lower than expected, mainly due to the company's transfer of shares in holding company Risconda Technology in 2014, increasing net profit by 51.2 million yuan in 2014, while there was no such income in 2015. Revenue data are impressive, and profits have been drastically reduced: in 15 years, the company benefited from a sharp increase in completed settlement area (1.04 million square meters completed throughout the year), achieving a total revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 57% over the previous year; and realized net profit of 28.42 million yuan, a sharp drop of 62% over the previous year. Contract sales increased dramatically, and Suzhou took the lead: in 2015, the company achieved contract sales of 1.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 306% compared to 424 million yuan last year, a contracted sales area of 2161,000 square meters, and a 275% year-on-year increase of 57,600 square meters compared to last year's 57,600 square meters. The performance exceeded expectations. The average sales price for 15 years was 7,959 yuan/square meter, and the growth rate fell back to 8.1%. ROE reached a record low, and debt was relatively healthy: ROE in 2015 was only 1.7% the lowest in history, the debt ratio rose from 51.6% to 63.1%, the total asset turnover ratio was the same as the previous year's report, and gross sales margin fell to 24.4%, leading to a clear downward trend in ROE. We believe that when the company's projects have not improved significantly, ROE is still under significant pressure. In 2015, the company received 1,636 million yuan in cash from selling goods and providing labor services, a sharp increase of 239.8% over 481 million yuan in the same period last year, and the sales payback situation is good. In 2015, the company's balance ratio was 63.1%, the net debt ratio was 41.13%, and the debt ratio excluding accounts received in advance was 51.88%, yet the overall debt ratio was still lower than 76.3% of the entire industry, which is relatively healthy. Steady acquisition of second-tier reserves, and there is an urgent need to supplement high-quality supplies: At the end of 2015, the company's project reserves covered an area of about 1,214,300 square meters, with a total construction area of about 3.178,000 square meters. That year, it entered Suzhou's Wuzhong District and Chongqing's Liangjiang New District, and acquired an additional planned land reserve area of 1.62 million square meters. CCCC Real Estate Platform Integration, Company Development, or Upgrading: The company has issued a suspension notice since February 22 this year, revealing that it is owned by CCCC or has injected high-quality real estate. As anticipated in our previous “China Real Estate In-depth Report: Decline in Business Performance, Expectations for CCCC Real Estate Platform Integration”, the company has already moved frequently before, revealing expectations for real estate platform integration. Investment suggestions: The company's ROE may face an overall downward trend. The company's overall debt ratio is currently low. The suspension is expected to integrate the China Stock Exchange real estate platform and help the company to reach the next level. Without considering restructuring, we expect the company's EPS for 16-18 to be 0.14, 0.16, and 0.19, respectively, and the PE multiples of the corresponding stock price during the suspension period are 100X, 88X, and 74X, which is significantly higher than the industry level. The development and buying opportunities brought by the restructuring plan will maintain the “buy-A” rating for the time being, with a target price of 17.6 yuan for 6 months. Risk warning: Reorganization failed, sales fell short of expectations

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment