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京投银泰(600683)点评:业绩集中释放期 良性发展

中投證券 ·  Mar 16, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: “benign development”, performance has entered a period of centralized release. Beginning in 2010, the company strategically adjusted the focus of the real estate business and returned to Beijing, disposed of project assets outside Beijing, focused on “Beijing as the center, rail transit as the foundation”, and concentrated high-quality resources to expand and strengthen the rail property industry. Since 2014, several of the company's high-margin projects in Beijing have entered the post-sales stage, and settlement began in 2015. An inflection point in the performance release is approaching. The company predicts that net profit of 116 million yuan will increase by about 360% year-on-year in 2015. The company's sales in 13-15 were 2.4 billion yuan, 7.1 billion yuan, and 9.8 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 114%, 192%, and 38%, respectively, with a three-year compound growth rate of 114%; up to the end of the 3rd quarter of 2015, advance revenue was 9.7 billion yuan, +64% over the same period last year, basically locking in the next 3 years. We expect sales to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2016, and the completion settlement of sold projects and a low profit base will maintain rapid growth in performance in 16-17. By the end of 2015, the company expects to have an unfinished surface of nearly 2 million square meters, with a value of nearly 75 billion yuan, sufficient for five years of orderly and steady development of the company. The company is entering a “benign development” path. Relying on the second largest shareholder, Beijing Infrastructure Investment Co., Ltd. and the technical barriers of building houses on the subway car section, the company has established a pioneering advantage in this field, and will gain a lot of room for future projects in the extension of the Beijing subway and the construction of the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei” rail network. The equity issues that restrict the company's development have been resolved, and the state-owned enterprise reform has given new room for imagination. At the beginning of 2015, Yintai Group transferred 20.78% of its shares in the company to Cheng Shaoliang, then vice chairman and president of the company, with only 4.05% of the remaining shares; Cheng Shaoliang then resigned as a director of Yintai and dismissed the co-actor with Yintai to exercise shareholder rights as a financial investor. However, after increasing its holdings, the major stock Tokyo Investment Group now holds 31% of its shares and has gained substantial control over listed companies. Beijing Investment Group is an influential comprehensive investment and financing group under the Beijing State-owned Assets Administration Commission. It undertakes the functions of investment and financing, pre-planning, asset management, capital operation, and related resource development and management for infrastructure projects such as rail transit in Beijing. As of the end of 2014, it had total assets of 38.6 billion yuan and net assets of 125.5 billion yuan. Currently, the company has obtained development projects with the cooperation and financial support of the Beijing Investment Group many times. It is hoped that in the future, it will increase its support for listed companies. It is not ruled out that resources other than the Group's real estate will support listed companies to increase the securitization rate of state-owned capital and increase the proportion of direct financing, which is also in line with the direction of state-owned enterprise reform. In terms of real estate, the group currently undertakes 6.3 million square meters of first-level development in suburban Beijing, such as Miyun, Pinggu, Daxing, Fengtai, and Mentougou. Listed companies have successfully obtained second-level development rights after the first-level land development of the Tanzhe Temple project, and it is hoped that in the future, they will continue to obtain development of subsequent projects using the advantages of controlling shareholders. The investment value and long-term development are recognized by insurance capital. At the end of 2015, Sunshine Life and Sunshine Financial Insurance increased their holdings of the company to 5.01% through the secondary market to reach 5.01% and strategically listed the company. Sunshine Life's increase in holdings cost about 7.3 yuan/share in August/November '15, of which 5.44 million shares were increased from October to November at an average price of 852-9.45 yuan/share. The current stock price is below this range. Given the company's small share capital, small market capitalization, and optimistic development prospects, I believe more steady investors will increase their holdings in the company in the future. The reward fund method based on return on net assets enhances management's performance to release momentum and determination for steady development. The company draws a certain percentage from the net profit realized in the current year as a reward fund, and the implementation targets are members of the company's board of directors, senior managers, and general manager level employees of the company department. The method stipulates that rewards can only be obtained when the weighted return on net assets reaches 10%. If the return on net assets exceeds 10%, additional rewards can also be accumulated by the difference, which will be distributed in annual proportions. In recent years, since the cycle of the subway construction industry exceeds that of ordinary properties, the company's inventory share is too high and performance release is slow. The weighted ROE in 2010 was only over 10% and reached 16%. The rest of the years were low, such as 4.8%, 4.0%, and 1.35%, respectively, in 12-14. The board of directors of the company has set high incentive standards, with the aim of safeguarding the long-term development of the company and ensuring the unity of shareholders' interests, company interests and employees' interests. The release of performance is also more motivating and sustainable. The company is a target that we continue to recommend in our annual strategic reports and monthly and weekly industry reports. The market capitalization is only 6 billion and the quality is excellent. The change in equity brings positive significance. The major stock Tokyo Investment Group is expected to continue to increase its support for listed companies. The state-owned enterprise reform gives them more room for imagination, while sustainable development guaranteed by sufficient resources and the centralized release of short-term performance will boost valuation. Its investment value and long-term development have been recognized by insurance capital, and there is still a possibility that it will continue to attract stable strategic investors despite favorable circumstances and locations, and it is worth paying attention to. The forecast company's 15-17 EPS is 0.16, 0.53, 0.76 yuan, and RNAV is 12.3 yuan/share. The current stock price is 30% off, and the target price is 12 yuan for 6-12 months, giving it a “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: The majority shareholders' support for listed companies falls short of expectations; the direction of development in the later stages remains to be seen.

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