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五矿发展(600058)点评:股价大幅回调 业绩巨亏之后 首次确定增发价

安信證券 ·  Mar 9, 2016 00:00  · Researches

First determination of the additional offer price: The company announced the “2015 Plan for Non-public Issuance of A Shares (Revised Draft)”. Compared to the previous “Plan”, the “Revised Draft” determined the additional price for the first time. Using March 9, 2015 as the pricing reference date, 90% of the company's average stock trading price for the previous 20 trading days, or 14.14 yuan/share, is the fixed increase base price. The capital and projects to be raised by the fixed increase remain unchanged. Based on the additional offer price of 14.14 yuan/share, the fixed increase is not more than 300,978,521 shares. The controlling shareholder Minmetals Co., Ltd. plans to subscribe for more than 10%. After the fixed increase is completed, the shareholding ratio of Minmetals Co., Ltd. to the company will drop from the current 62.56% to 51.04%, and will remain the company's controlling shareholder. Reference value of the increase in offer price: From November 27, 2015, when the “Plan” was announced to March 8, 2015, when the “Revised Draft” was announced, the company's stock price declined sharply, and it was also announced that the estimated loss for 2015 is around 3.7 billion yuan. Although it is still possible for the company to lock in prices again, this price lock still has some reference value for the secondary market. Investment advice: Steel e-commerce is an important gripper for the transformation of the steel industry chain. It has influence over the entire industry chain, and the market space is huge. It is inevitable that at least one company with a market value exceeding 100 billion dollars will appear. With the introduction of Ali, Minmetals's e-commerce ecosystem is expected to achieve the “strongest offline+strongest online” combination. After the Minmetals merger, the controlling shareholders have a stronger background, and the profitability after the divestment of Minmetals and Steel will be qualitatively improved. The huge losses in 2015 are also largely the result of clearing up barriers to progress, and are potential candidates for the most powerful companies with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion dollars. In the short term, the overall performance of steel and iron ore prices in 2016 was better than in 2015, which is also beneficial to the company's operations. Continuing to be optimistic about the company's subsequent development, EPS is expected to be -3.57 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.66 yuan per share from 2015 to 2017, maintaining a buy-A rating, and a target price of 25 yuan for 6 months. Risk warning: Integration with Ali falls short of expectations, and demand for steel has shrunk sharply.

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