share_log

澳洋科技(002172)年报点评:看好公司轻重结合的康复扩张模式

海通證券 ·  Mar 11, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Event: On March 10, Aoyang Technology announced its 2015 annual report. The company's 2015 revenue was 3.809 billion yuan, an increase of 29.94% over the previous year, and net profit of 136 million yuan was 136 million yuan, compared to -104 million yuan in 2014, a sharp improvement over the previous year. Comment: The performance of 15 turned a loss into a profit, and the performance of 16 is expected to continue to grow at a high level. Since it was a merger under the same controller, Australian Ocean Construction Investment was consolidated throughout 2015. The company's revenue in 2015 was 3.809 billion yuan, an increase of 29.94% over the previous year, mainly due to the impact of the new environmental protection law. The 120,000-ton adhesive production line of the subsidiary Xinjiang Manas was discontinued from March 31 to December 2015. Net profit of the mother was 136 million yuan, compared to -104 million yuan in 2014, a sharp improvement over the previous year. We expect the company's medical sector business to maintain a steady endogenous growth rate of 20% in 2016, contributing 600 million yuan in net profit throughout the year; the adhesive business, on the one hand, will benefit from the price increase of viscose staple fibers, and on the other hand, it will benefit from the commissioning of Manas in Xinjiang, and is expected to contribute 160 million yuan in net profit throughout the year. According to this estimate, the company's net profit in 2016 was 220 million yuan, an increase of 66% over the previous year, and its performance continued to grow rapidly. The 2015 profit included about 50 million government subsidies. The total amount of government subsidies included in non-operating income in 2015 was 52.3873 million yuan, mainly including the Ma County Finance Bureau's special support fund of 22.54 million yuan for textile and garment enterprises, Manas financial subsidies of 1.04 million yuan, and 6 million yuan of special funds for the transformation and upgrading of provincial and information industries in 2015. Viscose staple fiber prices continue to rise, and 2016 performance is expected to increase significantly. We believe that the company's profit situation of viscose staple fiber in 2016 is expected to surpass that of 2015. The main factors are: (1) The price of viscose staple fiber in 2015 started a rebound from around 11,500 yuan/ton, and only reached the level of 13,500 yuan/ton until August in the middle of the year, and then fell rapidly after reaching 15,000 yuan/ton, so the company's profit only improved significantly from the third quarter. The price of viscose staple fiber rebounded rapidly in 2016 after falling to a low of 12,000 yuan/ton, and has now rebounded to more than 13,500 yuan/ton in about 2 months. (2) As Xiaoshan Fulida discontinued production capacity of 180,000 tons at the end of the second quarter and was relocated, industry supply is expected to continue to shrink in the short term, and product prices are expected to hit the high level of 15,000 yuan/ton again. (3) The new production capacity in 2016 was very limited. The supply and demand pattern of the industry continued to improve, the overcapacity situation gradually eased, the operating rate of the industry remained high, and the profit time of enterprises increased significantly compared to last year. The company's future strategic plan adheres to the rehabilitation chain path, and is optimistic about its development direction and expansion model. The first is: “Vigorously develop rehabilitation medicine, achieve chain rehabilitation medicine, and help Australian and Western medical brands leave Zhangjiagang.” Within 3 years, 30-50 rehabilitation departments operating under a cooperative model will be implemented; second, “Deepen the development of the general branch business model, further infiltrate Zhangjiagang and surrounding areas, and increase market influence and share.” Plans have now been announced to cooperate with Fenghuang Town to build a new Phoenix Hospital; third: “Keep abreast of hot spots in precision medicine and focus on development in genetic testing and treatment, medical aesthetics, and rehabilitation.” The company holds 2% of Jikai Gene's shares, and also brought in a Korean medical and aesthetic team to set up a professional medical aesthetic institution at Australian-Pacific Hospital. At the present time, we continue to recommend Aoyang Technology. The main logic is: 1. Transform medical services and are optimistic about the company's rehabilitation medical expansion model combining priorities. It is expected that about 10 rehabilitation departments will be launched this year. 2. The price of viscose staple fiber in traditional business is steadily increasing. Currently, the price is 13,000 yuan/ton, and is expected to rise to 14,000/ton during the year. 3. The Youju 100 Nursing Home with a total investment of 350 million yuan has been in operation for 15 years with nursing home assets outside the body. Profit forecasts and investment advice. We expect the company's pharmaceutical sector to contribute 60 million yuan in net profit and 160 million yuan in chemical sector in 2016. Net profit is estimated at 2.2, 270, and 300 million yuan in 16-18, corresponding to EPS of 0.32, 0.38, and 0.43 yuan, giving the company a target price of 13.68 yuan, corresponding to 16-18 PE43, 36, 32 times, and an increase in holdings. Risk warning: risk of medical malpractice, risk of viscose staple fiber price falling short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment