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炼石有色(000697)点评:炼航空之石 打造未“铼”之翼

海通證券 ·  Mar 24, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The global advantages of rhenium resources are highlighted. In accordance with the established strategy, the company gives full play to the advantages of the company's rhenium resources and promotes the development and utilization of metal rhenium. All of the company's Shanghe molybdenum mines have discovered reserves of rhenium ore of 124 million tons. The amount of internal economic resources (333) estimated by the rhenium ore in this mine (333) is 124,0234 million tons, the amount of rhenium metal is 176.11 tons, and the average grade is 1.42 g/ton. The company's rhenium metal reserves account for about 40% of the country and 7.18% of the world's rhenium reserves. Wings without “rhenium” - rhenium containing superalloy blades. In 2014, the company increased 785854.61 million shares, the fixed price was 10.18 yuan/share, and the net capital raised was 78.21114 million yuan. The project was mainly used for aero engine rhenium-containing superalloy blade project construction and additional liquidity. It plans to build a new 80 tons/year rhenium-containing superalloy production line and a 55,000/year single wafer production line. The project construction period is from April 2013 to June 2015. The operating entity of this project is Chengdu Hangyu (80%), a subsidiary of Lianshi Nonferrous Metals Holdings. After the project reaches delivery, Chengdu Aerospace will achieve an average annual profit of 276.5036 million yuan. Rhenium superalloy materials have broad prospects in aviation. In the next 10 to 20 years, the world's major aviation powers will produce 140000 advanced aero engines. The turbine blades used in next-generation large commercial aircraft engines are made of high-temperature alloys containing up to 6% rhenium. The total demand for rhenium superalloys in the world will exceed 80,000 tons, with an average annual average of more than 4,000 tons. The annual production of rhenium-containing alloys is only 50% of market demand. Teamed up with SF Express to increase the number of high-tonnage drones. The company signed a “strategic cooperation agreement” with Chengdu Zhongke Aero Engine Co., Ltd. on August 27, 2015. Jointly invested 500 million yuan to establish a drone systems company to engage in R&D, design, production, sales, operation service and maintenance of a series of high-level military and civilian drones. The SF Group also signed a “Strategic Cooperation Agreement”. As the joint venture's primary strategic partner and core customer, the joint venture will prioritize the development of two large-tonnage unmanned transport aircraft for the SF Group to meet the needs of the SF Group's rapidly growing high-end express transport market. Profit forecasting and valuation. The company's rhenium-containing superalloy blade project is progressing steadily. After delivery, Chengdu Aerospace will achieve an average annual profit of 276.5036 million yuan. Rhenium metal is a scarce metal. The company's potential value is high. The estimated EPS for 2015-2017 is 0.12 yuan, 0.22, and 0.30 yuan respectively. Considering the current low level of metal prices and the high average price-earnings ratio of the industry, the company was given a valuation of 230 times the price-earnings ratio in 2015, corresponding to the target price of 27.60 yuan, and an increase in holdings rating. Uncertainty factor. Project research risks.

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