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澳洋科技(002172)点评:Q1业绩预盈 行业供需格局向好 维持买入评级

羣益證券(香港) ·  Mar 10, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Conclusions and suggestions: Announced a fixed growth plan: The company released its annual report. In 2015, it achieved revenue of 3.81 billion yuan, yoy -18.55%, and net profit of 136 million yuan, a sharp reversal of losses over the previous year, net profit of 97 million yuan after deduction, equivalent to EPS of 0.196 yuan, in line with expectations. Looking at a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 1.01 billion yuan and net profit of 45 million yuan in Q4, reversing losses over the previous year, equivalent to 0.06 yuan in EPS. Viscose staple fiber volume and price increase: During the reporting period, due to the discontinuation of production of viscose staple fiber production facilities in Xinjiang and technical improvements, annual production was 208,000 tons, yoy -23.94%, sales of 206,000 tons, and yoy -27.26%. However, due to improved supply and demand patterns and price increases, the business achieved revenue of 2.29 billion yuan, yoy -21.73%, and gross margin of 13.73%, up 6.45 percentage points from the previous year. The supply and demand pattern of viscose staple fiber is expected to continue to improve in 2016: up to now, the total production capacity of the viscose staple fiber industry is about 3.7 million tons, and no exact new production capacity has been calculated. At the same time, about 5% of the old production capacity is facing shutdown and relocation, so overall supply will decline. Looking at the demand side, the apparent demand for viscose staple fiber increased by about 5% year on year in 2015, and we expect to maintain single-digit growth in 2016. Therefore, from a comprehensive perspective, the viscose staple fiber industry will maintain a tight balance between supply and demand. Q1 performance reversed year-on-year losses, and there is a high probability of price increases during peak season: According to our monitoring data, since the beginning of 2016, the average price of the short-term viscose market has been 12,800 yuan/ton, up 12.3% year on year. Currently, the latest price is 13,600 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of nearly 20%. Affected by the year-on-year increase in viscose staple fiber prices and the combination of Australian and Ocean Health Investments, the company expects Q1 to achieve net profit of 0.05 to 15 million yuan, reversing losses year-on-year, equivalent to 0.007 to 0.014 yuan in EPS. Since the company has a production capacity of 300,000 tons of viscose staple fiber, each price increase of 1,000 yuan/ton when the cost remains the same, the theoretical increase in profit is 300 million yuan, affecting EPS by 0.43 yuan, and performance elasticity is extremely high. Since March-May is the peak season for downstream demand, we think it is a probable event that the price of viscose staple fiber will continue to rise when the supply and demand pattern is good. Profit forecast: We maintain our previous profit forecast. We expect the company to achieve net profit in 2016/2017 of 4.2 billion yuan, yoy +209% and +18%, respectively, equivalent to EPS of 0.60/0.72 yuan, and EPS of 0.53/0.62 yuan after fixed increase and dilution. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 23 and 19 times, respectively. We maintain the company's “buy” investment rating in view of strong price increases in the traditional main business, viscose staple fiber, and the company's performance is very flexible.

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