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天喻信息(300205):领跑教育云平台、移动终端安全的潜力军 蓄势蜕变

中投證券 ·  Mar 17, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The company used it as an opportunity to undertake the construction of a public service platform for national education resources. The company made every effort to seize education in the platform market, based on the B side and the C side, and is optimistic that it will become an important performance growth point for the company; TEE, as the company focuses on cultivating business, has large potential market space, and waits for market-based advancement under the impetus of leading technology and industry integration, and its potential is worth paying attention to; in addition, the company provides integrated ICT+ financial services to achieve a “three-stream integration” in the supply chain, which is expected to create a continuous and stable source of profit for the company in the future; traditional business finance IC cards are facing market contraction and gross profit Narrow down, and the business transformation from “product” to “service” will be gradually completed in the next three years. Key investment points: Focus on the construction of a cloud platform for education to become a leader in K12 online education in the future. Education informatization with “three links and two platforms” as the core is developing rapidly with financial and policy support. On the basis of exclusively undertaking the “National Education Resources Public Service Platform” construction project, the company continues to consolidate its leading position in the industry. It has won 8 provincial platform projects and 31 municipal and county platforms, with a market share of 50%; while focusing on B-side platform construction, it has deployed C-end user penetration, and has continuously improved the product system in the K12 online education field, and the education business will become an important growth point for the company's performance. It has the first-mover advantage of TEE technology, and has a long-term industrial integration layout. Apple Pay is driving the development of mobile phone security and the mobile payment industry, and the high level of security TEE technology will reach its peak. The company has won a first-mover advantage in technology in the TEE field based on the long-term accumulation of software development and development, and has exclusively launched the “TCore+SE+TAThing” solution; the low-level cooperation has successfully solved the problems of chip technology and actively explored business models and opened up downstream markets. Cooperation with non-domestic mobile phone manufacturers is about to be implemented, which is worth focusing on. The tax control market business sees the resumption of the business reform and increase process in 2016; the prospects for a closed loop in the “three streams in one” supply chain are promising. The expansion of the range of non-taxpayers in the “business change to increase” pilot has continued to drive demand for corporate tax control products. The supply volume in the first half of 2015 alone exceeded 160,000, and the performance in the second half of the year was blocked due to policy extensions. It is expected that the “business reform and increase” process will resume from 2016, and the business will continue to grow at a relatively rapid pace. Furthermore, the company did not join forces with China CITIC Bank to launch a comprehensive ICT+ financial payment service to create a closed loop of “three streams in one” supply chain. The scale of business is expected to continue to expand in the future. The growth rate of financial IC cards has slowed, and profitability has declined; leading card merchants are actively expanding their business scope across the board. In the seven years from 2007 to 13, the company's revenue and profit CAGR reached about 25% and 31%, respectively. The decline in prices in the financial IC card market, which accounts for 80% of the main business, has cut corporate profits, and the active transformation from “product” to “service” has rebuilt performance growth points. The company is undergoing a critical transformation, and online education and mobile terminal security are in abyss. We conservatively expect an EPS of 0.02/0.11/0.26 yuan in 15-17. Taking into account the company's education as a leader in the country, the potential of leading TEE technology in the mobile terminal security market, and the progress of business structure optimization, transformation, and poor performance, the target price is 16.9 yuan; risk warning: the sales price of financial IC card products continues to decline and sales volume falls short of expectations; the online education business market expansion falls short of expectations; the progress of innovative business development is uncertain

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