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乐凯胶片(600135)年报点评:业绩迎拐点 航天科技集团资本运作弹性最大的标的之一

東吳證券 ·  Apr 5, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company announced its 2015 annual report, achieving revenue of 1,183 million yuan (+25%), net profit due to mother of 36.65 million yuan (+33%), net profit deducted from non-mother of 35.65 million yuan (+88%), eps 0.1; the company plans to distribute 0.3 yuan for every 10 shares to all shareholders. Key investment points: An inflection point in performance, and battery backplane+lithium battery diaphragm volume helped continue growth in 2016. In 2015, driven by a high growth rate of 142% in the PV battery backpanel business, which accounted for 35% of revenue, the company's revenue and net profit both showed an inflection point. The growth rate of 25% + was higher than the growth rate of 10% or less in the previous 2 years; by business, the color photo paper business, which accounts for 59% of revenue, achieved revenue of 688 million (-1.18%) in 2015. The professional magnifying paper market declined due to declining trends in consumption methods such as online printing, and the company's open source savings continued to expand the traditional advantages of imaging materials in 2016. The annual business transitioned smoothly; the solar cell backpanel business, which accounts for 35%, had 2015 revenue of 400 million square meters (+142%), and the capacity utilization rate reached 172%. The company achieved leapfrog growth through cooperation with leading national and regional customers. As fixed increase projects advance, we expect business growth of 30% + in 2016; photographic chemical materials accounting for 4% had revenue of 40.94 million (+4%) in 2015. In addition, the steady increase in high-performance lithium battery separator lines and coating lines is expected to gradually contribute to performance in 2016. The gross profit margin and period expense ratio declined slightly, and the net interest rate remained steady. The company's consolidated gross margin in 2015 was 18.63%, -0.87pct; by business, the gross margin of color photo paper was 22.43%, +3.29pct year over year, mainly due to direct materials, manufacturing costs, etc. falling 0.87% and 0.27% year on year; the gross margin of the solar cell backpanel business was 9.25%, -4.16pct year on year, mainly due to 7% year-on-year increase of direct materials; sales expense ratio, management expense ratio and financial expense ratio were 5.81%, 8.44%, and -0.70%, respectively. 1.06pct, -0.33pct, and -0.59pct, the overall cost ratio declined; the net interest rate in 2015 was 3.39%, which was basically the same as 3.29% last year, and remained steady. High-performance wet lithium battery diaphragms and high-value-added coating films are expected to be gradually released in 2016. The popularity of the new energy industry chain is driving the lithium battery diaphragm industry to continue to grow at a high rate (domestic lithium battery production growth rate of 50% in 2015), and the increase in the share of ternary power batteries is driving demand for wet film making processes. Relying on core technologies such as film formation, coating, and particulate in the color film and photo paper industry over the years, the company plans to invest 300 million yuan to build a high-performance wet lithium battery diaphragm line with a production capacity of 40 million square meters, and invest 130 million to build 15 million square meters of ceramic coated modified diaphragms and 2 million square meters of special heat-resistant coating modified diaphragms. All production capacity is expected to achieve an average annual profit of 3.54 million yuan after delivery. Currently, the high-performance lithium-ion battery separator project located in the Aerospace Lekai New Materials Industrial Park is progressing smoothly, and it is expected that the lithium battery separator business will contribute significantly to the performance in '16. The Space Group's smallest market capitalization listing platform is expected to benefit from an increase in the Group's securitization rate. The Aerospace Group proposed a sharp increase in the asset securitization rate from 15% to 45% during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. As a listing platform with the Group's smallest market capitalization (6 billion dollars), we expect the company to become the Group's capital operation platform for new materials and new energy sources. The Group is expected to inject hundreds of millions of dollars in new materials and new energy assets (solar, thermal, wind power, etc.), and imagination space and market capitalization are more flexible. The stock price is inverted and the fixed price increase will increase by 20%, and the one-year fixed increase ban will be lifted in May. Profit forecast and investment suggestions: We are optimistic that the future gradual release of solar cell backpanels, wet lithium battery separators, and coating films will drive the company's high growth. At the same time, we are optimistic that the company, as the Space Group's smallest listing platform, will benefit from an increase in the Group's securitization rate. EPS in 2016-18 is expected to be 0.15/0.23/0.36, corresponding to PE109/69/45X, which is the first time it has been given an “added” rating. Risk warning: The lithium battery diaphragm project fell short of expectations; capital operation fell short of expectations.

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