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延华智能(002178)深度研究:智慧医疗和节能齐发力 助推业绩高增长

華泰證券 ·  Mar 21, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The company is a leading smart city service and operator in China, focusing on smart city top-level design, smart medical care, smart energy saving and other professional fields. The controlling shareholder of the company is Shanghai Yanhua Hi-Tech, which holds 17.94% of the company's shares. Mr. Hu Liming is the actual controller and holds a total of 36.4% of the shares. Driven by two wheels of deepening business transformation and expansion of epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, the company's performance has made great progress. The CAGR of net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2012-2015 reached 80.2%, and the net profit growth rate in 2015 reached 77.4%. Smart cities are in the high-speed construction and operation stage, and smart energy saving and smart medical care are key areas of development. By the end of 2014, more than 400 cities had built smart cities across the country. The average growth rate of smart city investment in 2016-20 can be maintained above 18%, and the total investment scale can reach 2 trillion yuan. Smart medical care includes the standardization of information systems for large-scale general hospitals, and the establishment of national electronic health records and regional medical informatization platforms. It is estimated that the CAGR investment will reach 20% in the next 5 years. The government's “13th Five-Year Plan” proposes comprehensive energy conservation and efficient use, and implementation of contract energy management. According to estimates by the Energy Conservation Industry Association, the energy saving service industry will maintain an annual growth rate of 30% in the next ten years, and the industry has plenty of room for development. Use Chengdian Medical Star to build a smart hospital leader. The company completed the acquisition of shares in Chengdian Medical Star in 2015 to improve the core industrial chain of green smart hospitals. Chengdian Medical Star has successfully built smart medical care and regional population health informatization in nearly 2,000 hospitals across the country. The company will build a hospital information system based on cloud and big data technology to build an ecosystem for the entire industry chain. The Chongzhou Smart Healthcare Project and the Changchun Integrated Elderly Care Cloud Platform Project, which have already been implemented, are the best examples of the company building smart healthcare. The company will rely on existing ones, extending from hospitals to regional healthcare to city-level smart healthcare ecosystems. Building energy consumption monitoring has a solid foundation, and the smart energy-saving business is expected to explode. The company is a leader in online monitoring and data application of building energy consumption in Shanghai, and won the top ten energy saving service brands in the construction sector in 2015. Currently, there are more than 400 large-scale buildings (over 20,000 square meters) that have achieved energy consumption monitoring, and their owners are all potential customers of the company's smart energy saving business. The company can provide comprehensive energy saving management and services throughout the life cycle of the building. Through energy consumption monitoring, big data mining and energy saving consulting, energy saving transformation is implemented, and energy-saving operation and maintenance management of facilities are provided. Profit forecast and valuation: Forecast the company's 2015-17 EPS 0.14/0.21/0.31 yuan, YOY 79%/49%/48%, three-year CAGR 56%. Considering the company's high growth and smart medical sector valuation (62X in 16 years), we gave the company 55-60 times PE in 16 years, with a reasonable valuation range of 11.6-12.6 yuan. Covered for the first time, giving a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Smart healthcare business development falls short of expectations, smart energy-saving business development falls short of expectations

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