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重庆港九(600279)年报点评:传统主业有望企稳关注区域政策

海通證券 ·  Mar 21, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The company published its 2015 annual report. Annual operating income was 2,066 billion yuan, up 9.01 percent year on year; net profit attributable to listed companies was 77.798 million yuan, down 20.02 percent year on year. Based on a share capital of 462 million shares at the end of 2015, the company transferred 5 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders using the capital reserve fund, and distributed a cash dividend of 0.6 yuan (tax included). The growth rate of the company's main port transit transport business has slowed, and the overall industry is expected to remain stable in 2016. Affected by the economic situation in 2015, the company's main business declined. Among them, the growth rates of loading and unloading business, passenger and freight agency business, and product sales business decreased by 0.06, 27.99, and 0.47 percentage points, respectively, and gross profit decreased by 3.11, 17.29, and 1.24 percentage points year-on-year. With the continuous implementation of national strategies such as the “Belt and Road”, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the third cooperation project between the Chinese and Chinese governments, Chongqing will better play the important strategic support role of the western opening up, the functions of the Yangtze River Golden Waterway will be further enhanced, the Yangtze River logistics freight volume is expected to continue to grow, and the port industry will generally continue to maintain a steady development trend. Vigorously expand integrated logistics services and improve the efficiency of multimodal transport. The company is the largest port and shipping center in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. With its excellent geographical advantages, promoting the transformation of commercial enterprises to a comprehensive logistics model will form a linkage effect between trade and logistics, promote trade through logistics, and enhance the company's profitability. Relying on ports, the company fully integrates logistics factors and resources such as warehousing, shipping, railways, highways, and ports around multimodal railway, public and water transportation, and actively expands trade logistics and supply chain logistics services. The company's production and operation are gradually shifting from a traditional single port handling model to a full-process logistics model, realizing the transformation, upgrading and development of the port business model. Benefiting from national policy support, the company's ports are expected to be divided into free trade zones, so there is plenty of room for imagination in the future. In the strategic construction of Chongqing's “Belt and Road” and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the high quality status of Chongqing's Hong Kong and Kowloon has been highlighted. Profit forecasts and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's 2016 and 2017 EPS will be 0.2 yuan and 0.25 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on March 18 will be 61 times and 49 times. Considering that the company may be affected by policy incentives and that the market capitalization is small and flexible, we have given 15% of the market capitalization for the next 6 months, giving the company a rating of “increase in holdings”. Risk warning. General market systemic risks and policy promotion fell short of expectations.

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