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联众(06899.HK)年报点评:2015业绩符合预期;2016新动向促进收入增长

中金公司 ·  Mar 30, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The 2015 results were in line with expectations. In 2015, the company's revenue increased 62% year on year to 770 million yuan, exceeding the agreed forecast by 4%; adjusted net profit increased 12% year on year to 162 million yuan, exceeding the agreed forecast by 3%. Benefiting from the growth of paying subscribers and ARPU, gaming revenue grew 52% year over year; while non-gaming revenue grew strongly, reaching 346%, thanks to a combined boost from WPT. Trends New products drive revenue growth. It is expected that PC gaming and mobile game revenue will maintain steady endogenous growth in 2016; while WPT's consolidated results throughout the year will also boost revenue growth in the non-gaming business. Furthermore, through research and development over a year earlier, Lianzhong will launch a series of new products in 2016, including a new WPT business model (such as launching social platform games through Facebook in overseas markets) and a new platform for cooperation with the Board and Card Sports Management Center of the General Administration of Sports. We believe these new products will become a new driving force for Lianzhong's revenue growth. Moreover, as the launch of the product enters a period of return on investment, the company's profitability will also be increased to a certain extent. The e-sports layout will create synergy with the core business. With the establishment of allied e-sports, Lianzhong's layout in the e-sports industry has become more comprehensive. As carriers of online and offline e-sports activities, Netfish E-sports Hall and Allied E-sports will bring a lot of synergy to Lianzhong's core business. On the one hand, the e-sports transformation of its games into e-sports can help increase user stickiness and thus increase game revenue; on the other hand, the operation of e-sports events is conducive to Lianzhong's expansion in non-game business, such as obtaining more sponsorship, advertising, licensing, and more important copyright revenue (such as WPT broadcasting rights, e-sports competition media copyright), etc. Profit forecasts for 2016/17 are $1.0 billion (down 4% from previous forecasts) and $1.3 billion, respectively; adjusted net profit forecasts are $238 million (down 8% from previous forecasts) and $260 million, corresponding to non-generic EPS standards of approximately $0.28 and $0.31 (or HK$0.33 and HK$0.36), respectively. Valuation and recommendations restate recommended ratings. Maintain the target price of HK$8.5, based on a price-earnings ratio of 26 times 2016. Risk markets are highly competitive; uncertainties for new businesses.

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