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天韵国际(06836.HK):OEM稳定增长 期望自家品牌产品表现超预期

國泰君安國際 ·  Apr 5, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Tianyun's performance in 2015 was slightly worse than our expectations, mainly because the sales growth rate of our brand products in the second half of 2015 slowed compared to the first half of the year, but it did a better job in managing accounts receivable than we expected. In 2015, the company's revenue increased 23.7% year over year to RMB 550 million, while the reported net profit was RMB 97 million, up 8.5% year-on-year. Excluding listing fees, core net profit and core net profit per share were RMB120 million and RMB0.135 respectively, up 29.1% and 11.0% year-on-year respectively. We had a conference call with management yesterday. In 2015, the capacity utilization rate was over 85%, and the new production capacity should be fully put into operation as scheduled. The company may increase capital investment to improve automation and production efficiency. OEM orders continued to grow strongly in the first 2 months of 2016, and the company hopes that revenue growth in 2016 will maintain the growth rate of the past few years. The new product, Meat Jelly, will soon be launched on the market, and the number of distributors is expected to continue to increase. Under the pricing strategy of lower raw material prices and costs plus expenses, the company's gross margin will remain stable in 2016. However, as sales of our brand products fell short of expectations in 2015, we lowered Tianyun's net profit per share by 10.3% and 16.5% to RMB 0.140 and RMB 0.164 respectively. Tianyun's current valuation is around 40% compared to the most comparable peer discount. As a result, we reaffirmed the company's “buy” rating, but due to the reduction in the profit forecast, the target price was also lowered to HK$1.45, which is equivalent to 8.8 times the 2016 price-earnings ratio, 7.5 times the 2017 price-earnings ratio, and 6.6 times the 2018 price-earnings ratio.

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