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炼石有色(000697)点评:单晶叶片送检成功 订单有望加速

國泰君安 ·  Apr 5, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: Maintain an overweight rating. Maintain the company's 2016-2018 EPS forecast of 0.09/0.39/0.58 yuan. Considering that the company's single crystal blades have been successfully sent for inspection, the defense procurement demand market space is broad, maintaining a target price of 37.2 yuan, a space of 43%, and maintaining an increase rating. The single crystal blade has been successfully sent for inspection. According to the disclosure in the annual report, “The construction of the project production line was completed during the reporting period. Self-developed alloy materials and mass production blades have been tested by authoritative institutions and reached the leading international level. After system certification and customer certification are completed, mass production can begin.” It is disclosed on the interactive platform that “all indicators of the trial sample meet or exceed design requirements”. The announcement shows that the company's monocrystalline blades have been successfully sent for inspection; mass production is pending certification. Order delivery may exceed expectations. Based on the calculation of domestic military aircraft holdings at the end of 2013, we estimate that the demand for first-class military aircraft blades will reach 850,000 blades/year. With intergenerational upgrades, more and more domestic military aircraft may use monocrystalline blades. Assuming 30% of them are used, the actual demand for monocrystalline blades will reach 250,000 blades/year. The market is currently concerned about whether there will be orders for the company's monocrystalline blades after they are successful. We have learned that the certification cycle for foreign civil aviation aircraft is longer, at least 2-3 years, which is longer. However, as domestic military aircraft are affected by overseas technology monopolies and prices, they may speed up procurement of company blades, so the order timing is expected to exceed expectations. Once the military buys in batches, it will face the demand to expand production due to the company's dogmatic nature in terms of domestic technology for monocrystalline blades. The company's current production line is only 55,000 pieces/year. Feasibility analysis estimates that the performance will contribute 280 million yuan/year, which will greatly enhance the company's growth and profit level. Catalyst: Single crystal blades were introduced, and orders were fulfilled faster. Risk warning: The risk of an order not being able to be fulfilled.

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