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辽宁成大(600739)年报点评:并购中华保险 实现业务转型

安信證券 ·  Mar 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Event: On March 28, 2016, Liaoning Chengda released its 2015 annual report. According to the annual report, the company's operating income in 2015 was 9.14 billion yuan, down 1.07% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 515 million yuan, down 36.71% year on year (all report data comes from company announcements). The operating advantages of China Insurance are obvious, increasing the company's efficiency: in December 2015, the company participated in the bidding and obtained 3 billion shares of China Insurance, accounting for 19.595% of the shares, further expanding the financial services sector. (1) China Holdings operates stably and has collaborative advantages: China Holdings is a comprehensive insurance financial group integrating industrial insurance, life insurance, and asset management. In recent years, China Financial Insurance's operations have been efficient and stable, and financial insurance premium income has steadily ranked in the top 5 of the industry; at the end of 2015, the company added life insurance business and applied for an asset management license to further expand its business areas; at the same time, China Holdings, as the only insurance target in the Oriental asset management business map, can meet the insurance needs of various companies within the system, thus demonstrating its internal collaborative advantages. (2) China's insurance business covers a wide range of business and has business advantages: According to the company announcement, the business scale of China Financial Insurance covers 66% of the country's market, and has regional advantages in the central and western regions. In particular, the market share of Xinjiang, Hunan, Hebei, and Henan provinces all exceed 8%, which has strong business advantages. Develop multiple businesses in parallel to create a diversified holding group: Through holding and participating companies, Liaoning Chengda's main business covers four major sectors, including financial services, trade circulation, biopharmaceuticals, and energy development. (1) The company is the third largest shareholder of Guangfa Securities and has reaped huge investment income: GF Securities actively grasped market opportunities, and profit and income increased dramatically. In 2015, it achieved net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 13.2 billion yuan and investment income attributable to the company of 2.166 billion yuan, an increase of 104.22% over the previous year. The investment income of GF Securities is expected to grow by more than 20% in 2016. (2) International crude oil prices have reached a low point, and the oil shale business will pick up in 2016: Due to the sharp drop in international oil prices, the growth rate of the company's oil shale business is slowing down. At the beginning of 2016, the company decided to stop Chengda Hongsheng's production and operation activities for a long time, resulting in a loss of 1,109 billion yuan in discontinuation of production. Baoming, Xinjiang achieved sales revenue of 22.4 million yuan and total profit of -562 million yuan in 2015. We believe that oil prices have now reached their lowest point, and the oil shale business may pick up in the future. (3) The trade distribution business will develop steadily: In terms of pharmaceutical chains, in 2015, it achieved sales revenue of 2,757 billion yuan, an increase of 6.49% over the previous year; in terms of domestic and foreign trade, in 2015, the textile export business achieved sales revenue of 918 million yuan, total profit of 22.81 million yuan, and commodity trade achieved sales revenue of 4.381 billion yuan, total profit of 148 million yuan. Revenue from the commercial distribution business is expected to increase steadily in 2016. (4) The subsidiary Chengda Biotech was listed on the new third board and became an important source of profit: In 2015, Chengda Biotech achieved sales revenue of 943 million yuan and a total profit of 542 million yuan, which is an important source of profit for Chengda in Liaoning. It is expected that the company's contribution profit to the biopharmaceutical business in 2016 will be basically the same as in 2015. Participating in state-owned enterprise reform and efficient management in mixed industries: The company introduced non-state capital giant investment and Fubon Life Insurance to participate in state-owned enterprise reform in 2014 to establish a mixed ownership business model. At the end of 2015, its shareholding shares were 4.25% and 4.13%, respectively. Investment advice: Buy-A investment rating, the target price for 6 months is 22.7 yuan, and the 2016-2018 EPS is 0.54 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.72 yuan respectively. Considering the company's oil shale business, commercial distribution business, biological business, and financial business and fixed growth, we expect the company's target market value to be about 34.7 billion yuan. Due to the macroeconomic downturn and the sharp drop in international crude oil prices, the company's operating income and net profit declined in 2015. It is expected that the growth of the company's financial business, the recovery of the oil shale business, and the steady development of the commercial distribution business and biopharmaceutical business in 2016 will bring about a recovery in the company's performance. We expect the revenue growth rates in 2016-2018 to be 2%, 3%, and 3% respectively. Considering the net profit contributed by China Insurance, the company's net profit and revenue growth rates in 2016-2018 were 95%, 22%, and 9.4%, respectively. Risk Warning: Market Risk, Risk of Macroeconomic Downturn Exceeding Expectations

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