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中国圣牧(01432.HK)年报点评:有机奶更胜一筹:2015年业绩回顾

中金公司 ·  Apr 5, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Revenue increased 45% year over year; profit increased 13% year over year due to falling prices of upstream raw milk and downstream dairy products, and the company's profit growth rate slowed. However, compared with other large-scale ranches and downstream dairy giants, the price of organic milk fell less (the average price of Shengmu organic milk and non-organic milk fell 7% and 11% year on year; the average price of the industry fell 19%; the price of milk in modern wood industry fell 12%), while the price of organic dairy products was higher (the premium was close to 20% compared to other non-organic high-end milk competitors such as Hyundai Animal Husbandry, Jindian, and Trenso). The trend is that the decline in the proportion of foreign sales will help the price of raw milk stop falling and stabilize. It is estimated that the proportion of organic raw milk sold abroad will fall to 29% in 2016 (41% in 2015), mainly due to strong demand for downstream organic dairy products, which is expected to curb the declining trend of the company's raw milk prices. Organic dairy retail is strong and has a price premium. Benefiting from improved demand, organic dairy products enjoy a 20% retail premium over their non-organic competitors; at the same time, the company's sales were strong in the first quarter of 2016, and sales volume is expected to double again throughout the year. Free cash flow is about to be corrected. Given that lactating cows account for over 60% (which would reduce the cost of raising small cows included in capital expenditure) and strong downstream organic dairy sales, we expect to generate free cash flow and bring real value by the end of this year. The profit forecast raised the 2016 profit forecast by 7.1% and introduced the 2017 profit forecast, mainly reflecting that downstream sales exceeded expectations and the price of organic raw milk and dairy products stabilized. The valuation and recommendations were adjusted to increase the target price at the end of 2016 by 7.6% to HK$2.96 based on profit forecast adjustments. Reiterating the recommendation, mainly due to strong profit growth potential, it is expected that free cash flow will be generated in the future and that valuations will be cheap. Demand for risky dairy products has worsened, and prices of raw milk and dairy products have continued to decline.

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