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中海集运(601866)年报点评:15年业绩下滑 金融+租赁助力估值回升

申萬宏源研究 ·  Apr 4, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Performance is in line with expectations. The company released its 2015 report. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 31,861 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.07%, and a net profit loss of 295 million yuan to mother, a year-on-year decrease of 377.88%. After deducting losses of 295 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5690.20%. The basic EPS in 2015 was -0.2524 yuan, and the weighted average ROE was -12.56%, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93 percentage points. The shipping market is sluggish, and falling freight rates have led to a decline in the main business. The company is mainly engaged in container transportation business. It is the only fully open industry in China's shipping sub-industry, directly facing global competitors. Supply in the shipping industry continued to grow by more than 5% during the reporting period, but demand was slightly sluggish due to global macroeconomic effects, and it is still difficult to change the pattern where supply exceeds demand in the industry. Looking at route freight rates, the European route was affected by new investment and the expansion of ships. The freight rate index fell by 32.05% throughout the year, and the US line was relatively strong; the company completed a total freight volume of 7.8094 million TEU, down 3.51% from the previous year. Affected by lower freight rates, revenue fell 12.07%. By the end of 2015, the company's shipping fleet had reached 173 ships, with an overall carrying capacity of 889,000 TEU, and received an additional 19,000 TEU large container ships, in line with the development trend of international shipbuilding. The sharp decline in performance was due to asset disposal profits last year. The company's net profit loss during the reporting period decreased by 377.88% year on year, and after deducting non-net profit, it fell 5690.22% year on year. We believe that on the one hand, the sharp decline was due to a drop in freight rates this year, with gross shipping margin of -4.15%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.60 percentage points; on the other hand, in 2014, the company received a total investment income of 919 million yuan by selling the three companies, Zhengjin Industrial, Yangshan Storage and Transportation, and Zhonghai Terminal, which included non-recurring profit and loss, while the 15-year investment income was -212 million yuan. After the restructuring, it will switch to container leasing and financial services. After the merger of COSCO and CNOOC, CNOOC's listed platform placed its shipping business in China's COSCO and will form three new core businesses. One is the leasing industry, mainly container leasing and financial leasing, which is mainly carried out by Florence, Oriental International, CNOOC Leasing, etc.; the second is the equity investment and financial services sector, which is mainly operated by CNOOC Investment, CNOOC Finance, etc.; the third is the financial sector, which includes Bohai Bank and Shanghai Life Insurance. After the company switched from a cyclical industry to a relatively stable leasing+finance industry, according to historical data, we expect the new business to have a net profit of at least 3 billion dollars for the whole of 2015. Increase profit forecasts and increase purchases. Considering that the change of business to leasing+finance after the restructuring will greatly improve the company's performance, we have raised our profit forecast. From 2016 to 2018, the company's EPS is 0.30 yuan, 0.31 yuan, and 0.32 yuan (originally 0.04 yuan, 0.08 yuan, 0.09 yuan, respectively), and the corresponding PE is 15 times, 15 times, and 14 times, respectively. The valuation after the restructuring is relatively stable. Since there is no response to certain differences in expectations in the report, it was raised to a purchase rating.

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