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引力传媒(603598)年报点评:业绩符合预期 “一体两翼”战略值得期待

興業證券 ·  Apr 1, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment event: The company released its 2015 annual report. Comment: The company's performance is in line with expectations. 1) The company's revenue in 2015 was 1,888 billion yuan, up 30.43% year on year; net profit to mother was 27.15 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.94%, in line with our expectations and the market (the company expects net profit for 2015 to decrease by 40%-55% year on year); 2) The company decided to increase 10 shares for every 10 shares. The rise in media agency costs is the main reason for the decline in the company's profits. 1) In 2015, the company's media agency revenue was 1,761 billion yuan, up 26.62% year on year, accounting for 95% of the company's main business; the business had a gross profit margin of 6.38% in 2015, down 2.85 pcts year on year, causing the company's profit to decline; 2) The decline in gross margin was mainly affected by industry competition and rising media prices, and the company's media agency costs rose; 3) On the other hand, the company actively deployed and invested more resources in the content marketing field, increasing the company's operating costs and affecting the company's performance. “Two wings in one”, combining content marketing and digital marketing. 1) The company actively expanded content marketing in 2015, successively participating in Huachuan Culture, which focuses on the commercial operation of TV programs; Starch Media, which is dedicated to post-processing; the company invested 60% of the variety show “Seeing Your Voice” premiered on March 27 on Jiangsu TV. CSM52 had a ratings rate of 0.979%; 2) In addition to content marketing, the company also actively accelerated the development of the digital marketing business, continuously increasing its investment in digital marketing business and team building. Profit forecasting and ratings. We expect the company's net profit for 2016/17/18 to be 6466/8928/116.3 million yuan, the corresponding EPS for exam preparation is 0.48/0.67/0.87 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 93/68/52 times the current stock price. We believe that the “two wings in one” strategic plan and related outreach development are expected to open up new horizons for the company's growth and maintain the “gain” rating. Risk warning: The acquisition fell short of expectations, and the ratings for variety shows fell short of expectations.

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