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苏宁环球(000718)跟踪报告:长期仍需关注医美板块进展

興業證券 ·  Jun 16, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Key investment events: After communicating with the company recently, the company's latest overview was updated to provide reference for investors who continue to follow the medical and aesthetic sector and Suning Global. The short-term poor real estate market confirmed the company's vision of transformation. The company launched a transformation plan in 2015 to reduce the impact of the country's macro-control on the company's business and shift to new consumption and other sectors of the economy. The current national policy has had a negative impact on the housing market in the short term, and its duration is still uncertain, further confirming that the company decided to transform two years ago and still has a firm vision. Net profit from the real estate business is expected to maintain a 20% growth rate in 2017. The company currently has a land reserve of about 5.7 million square meters. Housing prices in Nanjing have not significantly loosened since this year (remained at over 20,000 square meters), and the rate of removal of new properties has remained at 70-80%. We still maintain our 20% net profit growth forecast for the real estate sector (this year's profit reflects last year's sales), and we will maintain our 15% year-on-year growth forecast next year. Medical and aesthetic mergers and acquisitions and self-construction plans continue to advance: the company's hospital mergers and acquisitions are carried out simultaneously with self-construction, and there is no need for financing. Maintain the forecast that 30/50 hospitals will be incorporated and built by themselves in 2017-18. In addition to this, ID Health and a team of **** physicians began supporting the company's hospital operations, and the entire hospital exported detailed services, which greatly helped build the company's brand and word-of-mouth effect. It still has the greatest potential for integration, and continued attention is being paid. Maintain an estimated compound growth rate of 24.8% in 2017-19. EPS is 0.48/0.64/0.75, and PE is 12.5X/9.3X/8X, respectively. Since this year, the company has backtested to 64% of the estimated NAV due to the lifting of the ban on additional distribution and the poor housing market. If the real estate and medical and aesthetic sectors are assessed separately and 10x and 35x PE are given respectively, the 2017-18 spin-off profit estimates that the company's market value ranges from 18.3 billion to 27.2 billion. Currently, the downside risk is low, maintaining the view that the company is most capable of becoming an integrator in the medical and aesthetic sector, and maintaining the suggestion to increase holdings. Risk warning: The expansion of medical and aesthetic projects is not as good as expected, and the real estate sector has declined sharply

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