Main points of investment:
The company publishes its 2015 annual report
In 2015, the operating income was 1.103 billion yuan, and the net profit was 141 million yuan, slightly lower than we expected. In 2015, the company achieved operating income of 1.103 billion yuan, which is basically consistent with our forecast of 1.102 billion yuan, with a net profit of 141 million yuan and EPS0.37 yuan, slightly lower than our previous forecast of 157 million yuan net profit and 0.42 yuan EPS.
The company's current stock price has a high margin of safety. We believe that the company's current stock price has a high margin of safety, with a total market capitalization of about 4.8 billion yuan and a stable annual net profit of 1.4-150 million yuan. In addition, the company's Hangzhou Department Store, Hangzhou Hotel and collectibles market are all owned properties; another 30% stake is located in the Xizi International Center in the Qingchun Road Business Circle of Hangzhou. The total equity area of self-owned property is about 270000 yuan, all of which are located in the core area of Hangzhou, and the revaluation value of equity property is about 8.094 billion according to the conservative estimation of 30, 000 yuan of own property. Traditional business performance and self-owned property provide a margin of safety for the company's share price.
The actual controller is reliable, the strategic transformation is great and healthy, the determination is huge, and the prospect is promising. The actual controller of the company is steady and steady, and the business of elevators, waste heat boilers and three-dimensional garages has won the first market scale in various fields. The actual controllers hope to transform to medical services and large health fields through the listed platform of the company. For this reason, the company has made a major layout in terms of human resources. The departure of the deputy general manager and chairman ten years ago is a partial reflection of the company's adjustment in human resources. We believe that the aging population and the insufficient supply of domestic medical service resources provide good development opportunities for medical services and the large health industry, and we are optimistic about the prospect of the company's strategic transformation.
The resources obtained by the company's transformation are very scarce, the certainty of profit is high, and the expansion of the industrial chain constitutes the catalyst. The company cuts into medical services and great health transformation by applying for a tertiary hospital license from the Zhejiang Health and Family Planning Commission. The hospital license obtained by the company is the only private tertiary for-profit hospital in Zhejiang Province. and it is a pilot project for the cooperation between public hospitals and social capital in Zhejiang Province. the company will set up a tertiary oncology specialist hospital through cooperation with Zhejiang Cancer Hospital. Cooperate closely with Zhejiang Cancer Hospital in terms of brand, doctor resources and patients, and constantly improve the cancer treatment industry chain on this basis. We believe that the certainty of the profitability of the company's transformation is very high, and the future expansion of the tumor industry chain will constitute a catalyst for the rise of stock prices.
Maintain the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. We estimate that the operating income of the company from 2016 to 2018 will be 1.536 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of returning to the mother will be 1.48 million yuan and 155,148 million yuan respectively. The net profit of the company's traditional business in 2016 is expected to be 148 million yuan, we give the traditional business 20 times PE corresponding to a reasonable market value of 2.96 billion yuan, tumor hospital 800beds, it is estimated that the annual income of each bed will achieve 1.5 million yuan in 2020, the annual income will achieve 1.2 billion yuan, according to the net interest rate of 25%, the net profit can be achieved of 300 million yuan, and the reasonable market value of the tumor hospital calculated by 10 times PE in 2020 is 3 billion yuan. We conservatively calculate that the reasonable market capitalization of the company is 5.96 billion yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.