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胜利股份(000407)年报点评:天然气价格下调受益者 转型进入兑现期

長江證券 ·  Apr 11, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Event description The company disclosed its 2015 annual report and performance forecast for the first quarter of 2016. In 2015, the company achieved revenue of 2,496 billion dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 13.11%; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of about 0.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.58%. Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 52-056 million in the first quarter of 2016, an increase of 540.28% to 589.53% over the previous year. Incident reviews benefited from lower gas prices, and the company's natural gas business performance surged. The decline in the company's revenue and performance in 2015 was mainly due to the continued slump in traditional business. In contrast, the natural gas business achieved significant growth in revenue (revenue of 289 million in the first half of 2015, a year-on-year increase of 302.19%) and gross profit margin (22.93%, up 2.54%). This year has continued to benefit from lower gas prices driven by a surge in demand. It is expected that the first quarter of 2016 will achieve performance of 52-56 million, a year-on-year increase of 540.28% to 589.53%. Among them, the natural gas business revenue will increase 300% year-on-year. International crude oil continues to be sluggish, and there is still room for reduction in natural gas prices. Since November 2015, international crude oil prices have continued to decline and are at historic lows. Up to now, the spot price of Brent crude oil has fallen to 37.10 US dollars/barrel, a drop of 21.56%. Meanwhile, the prices of liquefied gas and fuel oil, which are directly linked to natural gas, also continued to fall. Among them, the average price of fuel oil imports fell by 35.7%. We predict that there is still room for reduction in natural gas, and the company will continue to benefit in the future. The price of natural gas has been lowered, the difference between the purchase and sale price has widened, and the company's profitability has increased. In 2015, the price of natural gas experienced two cuts, with a reduction of 1.14 yuan/m3. Correspondingly, the price of the company's natural gas terminal was reduced to 2.02 yuan/m3, and the gas price reduction brought double benefits to the company: (1) stimulate terminal demand (cumulative gas consumption in the first two months of 2016 increased by 14.19% year-on-year) (2) the reduction in terminal consumer prices was slower than gate station prices and enjoyed the process of increasing gross margin (judging from the price of terminal consumption in the region where the company is located, the highest reduction of 1.05 yuan/m3 is less than the price reduction of gate station prices). The above two factors drive the company's profitability to increase. The company is actively building a clean energy service provider, and the future development prospects are very broad. Since 2011, the company has begun a transformation and upgrading plan using a merger and acquisition model. While vigorously expanding its natural gas business, it is actively divesting traditional businesses with low gross margins. Up to now, the company's transformation and upgrading layout has basically taken shape, and we are very optimistic about the company's future development. The main reasons are as follows: (1) the decline in gas prices continues to stimulate; (2) the distributed natural gas market with unlimited prospects will enter a period of high growth in the future, and the company's performance is about to improve again; 2016 is known as the “first year of natural gas distribution”, natural gas price reduction, subsidy amount increase+electricity reform & energy internet, Stimulated by multiple factors, China's distributed natural gas market will usher in a period of high growth. The company has obvious advantages in terms of gas sources, customers, and industrial chains.” The company has the advantages of low cost gas sources and special gas supply, so the upper and lower industrial chains are clearly open, and the future will benefit. (3) Under the integration of mergers and acquisitions, the company's “performance commitment 10 times PE” will continue to significantly increase the company's performance. Profit forecast and valuation: Considering fixed increases and dilution, the company's EPS for 2015-2017 is expected to be 0.04, 0.29, and 0.53 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating! Risk warning: systemic risk, risk of project progress falling short of expectations

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