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大有能源(600403)年报点评:煤炭产销同比下滑 4季度环比增亏

長江證券 ·  Apr 11, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The company's coal production and sales declined year on year. In 2015, the company's raw coal production was 15.9026 million tons, down 2.964 million tons, or 15.71%; commercial coal production was 15.6869 million tons, down 15.53% year on year; commercial coal sales were 14.4717 million tons, down 2.485 million tons year on year, a decrease of 14.66%. Affected by the decline in industry demand, the company's coal production and sales declined year on year. Among them, the company's commercial coal sales in the fourth quarter were 358.12 and 3.3333 million tons, respectively, down 8.63% and 11.59% from the previous quarter. The company plans to produce 16.8 million tons of raw coal in 2016. Coal prices are weak and costs are rigid, and gross profit margins of coal have declined sharply. The average sales price of the company's coal in 2015 was 226.15 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 114.07 yuan, a decrease of 33.53%. The cost of a ton of commercial coal was 219.73 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.60 yuan, a decrease of 5.42%. Compared with the cost of weak coal price companies, the gross profit of a ton of coal fell 101.47 yuan to 6.43 yuan year-on-year, and the gross margin of coal mining fell 28.87 percentage points to 2.84% year on year. The gross margin of coal trade was 1.59%. Expenses for the period were well controlled. The company's total expenses for the 2015 period were 1.06 billion yuan, down 21.20% year on year. Among them, sales expenses decreased by 34.13% year on year mainly due to reduced freight costs, and 19.78% decrease in management expenses was mainly due to a decrease in employee remuneration; financial expenses increased by 206.14% year on year, mainly due to an increase in interest expenses. Production and sales declined in the fourth quarter, and performance increased losses month-on-month due to impairment losses. The company's coal production and sales declined month-on-month in the fourth quarter, and market prices were weak, which had a certain impact on the company's profits. Gross profit fell by 132 million yuan month-on-month in the fourth quarter, while asset impairment losses of 158 million yuan were calculated (mainly bad debts and inventory impairment), increasing the company's performance burden. The company's net profit for the fourth quarter was 708 million yuan, an increase of 361 million yuan over the previous quarter. Follow the progress of local supply-side reforms and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. We predict that the company's EPS in 2016-2018 will be -0.38, -0.35, and -0.34 yuan respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.

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