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引力传媒(603598)年报点评:巩固传统广告优势 延伸布局内容制作+营销

海通證券 ·  Apr 8, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Expanding the layout of content areas, rising media prices, leading to a decline in net profit. According to the 2015 annual report, the company achieved revenue of 1,888 billion yuan, an increase of 30.43% over the previous year. Based on the trend of a further slowdown in domestic GDP growth, weak growth in the advertising and media industry, and the rise in industry competition and media prices in 2015, and the company invested more resources in expanding its layout in the content sector, the net profit attributable to the parent company during the reporting period was 27.15 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.94%. Focus on “two wings in one”, expand and strengthen the traditional media agency business, prioritize the development of the content industry, and strategically develop the digital entertainment industry. Focusing on the brand building and communication needs of advertisers, the company makes full use of its accumulated advantages to expand and strengthen the traditional media agency business, prioritize the development of the content industry, and strategically develop the digital industry in the context of an era where the country is speeding up the development of the cultural industry. Consolidate traditional media agency business and strive to achieve multi-point growth in content marketing, content production and investment, and digital marketing. Focus on advertising and marketing, and transform from traditional TV advertising business to the field of variety show production and content marketing. Currently, the advertising market is constantly being transformed into advertising content. All advertisements need to be combined with content for better marketing. Traditional hardware is gradually being eliminated by advertisers, and marketing rooted in content will have more room for development in the future. The company's core business is divided into three parts: traditional TV commercials, variety show production and marketing, and special marketing services. It is estimated that the company's revenue from traditional TV commercials and variety shows will be the same in 2016, and revenue will reach about 2 to 2.5 billion dollars. Promoting content production for variety shows, the company expects to produce 8 to 10 variety shows (including programs for netizens) this year. “Seeing Your Voice”, which was broadcast on Sunday Gold on Jiangsu TV on March 27, was the company's core product for the first quarter. The first installment had a ratings of 0.98, ranking 8th in the country. The company invested 54 million yuan, accounting for 60% of the program. The copyright for the program was purchased from the Korean program “I Can See Your Voice”. It is a new-concept music mystery program launched by the Korean CJ Group. The ratings remain high in Korea. Currently, the second season has been produced, and the ratings for the first time in the same period. Profit forecast: We expect the company's EPS to be 0.48 yuan, 0.76 yuan and 1.13 yuan respectively from 2016 to 2018. The company's closing price on April 7 was 48.67 yuan, corresponding to the 2016 to 2018 PE of 101 times, 64 times, and 43 times. Since the company is in the business transformation stage, the layout effects in the fields of variety show production and content marketing still need to be observed, and there are still many uncertainties, so the company will not be rated for the time being. ? Risk warning: The advertising business falls short of expectations, policy risks, intense market competition, and systemic risks.

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