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天茂集团(000627)深度报告:业绩绽放闪耀光芒 产寿合璧转型金控

東北證券 ·  Apr 25, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The two swords of industrial life insurance are combined to create a financial control platform. Tianmao Group has now completed the acquisition of Guohua Life Insurance (holding 51% of shares). This year, the company is expected to complete the capital increase of Guohua Life Insurance and the acquisition of Tianping Financial Insurance (50% equity). In addition, the majority shareholders will complete their participation in Changjiang Securities. The company will build a financial control platform with a dual license for life insurance and financial insurance, giving full play to the synergy of various financial industries; transforming into a diversified listed company with insurance, pharmaceuticals and chemicals as its main business, profitability and sustainable development capacity are expected to increase dramatically. Premium income showed high growth, and the performance also showed impressive contributions. According to Guohua Life's disclosure of first-quarter results, the original premium income reached 18.471 billion yuan, an increase of 189% over the previous year. Insurers' investment payments increased by 11.848 billion yuan, an increase of 146.83% over the previous year. Benefiting from Guohua Life's impressive financial data, Tianmao Group's forecast for the first quarter turned a loss into a profit. Net profit attributable to the parent company is estimated to be 750 million yuan to 800 million yuan, and basic earnings per share of 0.176 yuan to 0.188 yuan. The revenue structure is constantly being optimized, and internet insurance has huge potential. At present, Guohua Life is gradually forming a business model based on annuity insurance and supplemented by universal insurance. In 2015, the Internet life insurance business covered premium income. Guohua Life Insurance ranked second in the industry with underwriting premium income of 17.329 billion yuan, maintaining its leading edge in the Internet insurance innovation competition. Guohua Life Insurance has overtaken the Internet channel as the main focus of fierce competition from traditional channels, and it is hoped that it will gradually break away from the model that relies too much on banking insurance channels. We are optimistic about Guohua Life's flexible operating system as a private small and medium-sized life insurance company, and the synergy brought about by the company's sales channels, product diversification, continuous improvement in revenue structure, and deep integration of various resources in future life insurance in the context of high growth in the insurance industry. According to our assumptions and estimates, we believe that the company's reasonable target market value should be 57.5 billion yuan, and the corresponding target price per share should be 10.16 yuan. We expect the EPS for 16 and 17 to be 0.29 yuan and 0.34 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PB for '16 and '17 will be 2.47 times and 2.25 times. We give it a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The growth rate of original premium income is slowing down, there is uncertainty in the regulation of universal insurance and dividend insurance at the policy level, and the return on investment falls short of the target.

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