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高新发展(000628)年报点评:业绩扭亏为盈、转型升级势在必行

安信證券 ·  Apr 15, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Incidents: The company announced its 2015 annual report, achieving revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.32%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 466.687 million yuan, a sharp increase of 211.63% over the previous year, turning a loss into a profit; basic earnings per share of 0.166 yuan, an increase of 186.91% over the previous year, and higher performance than expected. Revenue declined and performance reversed: In 2015, the company sold 100% of the shares of its subsidiary Mianyang Beite Construction and Development Co., Ltd. and Chengdu Beite Century Property Management Co., Ltd. for 247 million yuan, confirming investment income of 138.8 million yuan. However, at the same time, the company's main business scale shrank, while the company's main business situation in 2015 was still not optimistic, and losses in construction reached 43.4424 million yuan. Gross profit is sluggish and prospects uncertain: The gross margin of the company's main business continues to be sluggish, at only 9.2%. The gross margin of the construction industry, which accounts for 89.35% of the main business, fell to a low point of 2.27% in recent years, but after excluding housing projects contracted in previous years — the Champs Elanthouse project, the situation gradually improved. Futures brokers only started their business, accounting for only 3.82% of revenue. Although this business was affected by competition, revenue declined year by year, but due to its extremely high gross profit margin or the focus of the company's short-term development, the future profit growth point is still unclear. The main business is unknown, waiting to be upgraded: Although the company's performance turned a loss into a profit in 2015, there are still situations where the company's main business did not stand out. In the future, the company's focus will still be on the upgrading and transformation of the main business model: 1) Establish a main business with good profitability and development prospects through capital and management means, and reshape the company's value. 2) Creating conditions to continue optimizing and disposing of existing businesses, and continuing to divest non-core businesses and inefficient assets with low profitability and no prospects for development can enable the company to concentrate its energy and superior resources on developing promising and marketable industries. 3) Improve the operating efficiency of existing major construction and futures businesses. Investment advice: The company turned a one-time profit and loss into a profit due to the sale of the entire real estate business, but there are still problems such as poor profit in the main business and uncertain development prospects. The upgrading and transformation of the company's main business can be expected to accelerate. We expect the company's EPS for 2016-2018 to be 0.18, 0.22, and 0.25 respectively, corresponding to the PE multiplier of the current stock price of 82.6X, 66.2X, and 57.7X, maintaining a buy-A investment rating of 18.6 yuan for 6 months. Risk warning: Delayed arrival of management, slow transformation and upgrading

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