share_log

长荣股份(300195)年报点评:期待行业复苏

中金公司 ·  Apr 8, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Performance fell short of expectations. The company achieved operating income of 1,111 billion yuan in 2015, an increase of 16.13% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 165 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.03%. Profit statement: Management expenses increased sharply by 44.29% in the current period, mainly due to the increase in R&D expenses due to cooperation between the company and Heidelberg to develop new models. Balance sheet: The increase in the ratio of accounts receivable to revenue by 3.68ppt is mainly due to the company increasing the credit cycle of some old customers. Cash flow statement: Investment cash flow increased sharply by 1,881.61%, mainly due to the company receiving dividends from Guilian Holdings and the sale of real estate. Trends The equipment business is expected to improve in 2016. 1) In 2015, the company and Heidelberg were in the integration stage, and overseas exports were affected to a certain extent. With the completion of asset and technology delivery in 2015, the company's export business is expected to return to growth in 2016. 2) Drupa, a four-year global printing technology exhibition, was held in Germany at the end of May and is expected to drive sales of the company's new equipment. 3) The market space for technological improvement of intelligent printing equipment exceeds 10 billion yuan. The printing equipment industry may rebound in 2016, and demand for technological reform is expected to be released. The company has cooperated with Guilian Holdings to carry out intelligent transformation projects, and may be the first to benefit. A breakthrough was achieved in the cloud printing business. 1) The company signed a contract with Jin Lun Yun Printing as the company's first regional franchise factory. Jin Lun Yunyin is the leading graphic production company in the southwest region. The cooperation between the company and Jin Lun Yunyin has broken through the company's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei service radius limit, and is expected to become a model project for external replication in the future. 2) Currently, the quarterly data for cloud printing is gradually increasing. It is expected that 1Q16 cloud printing orders will exceed 20 million yuan, and active online trading accounts will also gradually increase. Profit forecast performance fell short of expectations. The 2016e net profit forecast was lowered by 17.7% to 224 million yuan, and the 2017e net profit forecast was 284 million yuan for the first time. The valuation and P/E for 2016/17 were 26.9x and 21.2x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating. The target price was lowered by 21% to 22 yuan (corresponding to 33x P/E in 2016). The expansion of risk cloud printing fell short of expectations, and exports of printing equipment fell short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment