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海正药业(600267)年报点评:经营触底 2016年利润有望好转

中金公司 ·  Apr 7, 2016 16:00  · Researches

The results are in line with expectations of operating income of 8.767 billion yuan in 2015, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2%, achieving net profit attributable to mother of 13.5667 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95.6%, and net profit attributable to mother of -139.07 million yuan after deducting non-recurring profit and loss, which is in line with expectations. The company distributes 0.7 yuan in cash (tax included) for every 10 shares to all shareholders. The development trend was affected by a shift, and the fourth quarter results declined further. 4Q's revenue for the single quarter was 2,060 billion yuan, a slight decrease over the previous year. Net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.135 million yuan, and net profit attributable to the mother after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was -103.1 million yuan (+62.0% QoQ). This is mainly due to: 1) the company added consolidation of about 1.5 billion yuan (an increase of 500 million yuan in the second half of 2015), corresponding to additional depreciation and amortization of ~ 300 million yuan/year, which is the main reason for the decline in profits; 2) the company's marketing adjustments are ongoing, and the phased phenomenon of high sales expenses eroded profits; 3) the export business was affected by the lack of production capacity for the company's major new products such as ambenomab, and adenosylmethionine growth slowed. Problems with the operation of joint ventures continue. Compared to the same period in 2014, the net profit of the joint venture declined significantly, mainly due to: 1) the patented drug Specixing was sold out globally, affecting revenue of about 1 billion yuan; 2) personnel structure adjustments led to the departure of some sales staff, which greatly affected sales drug sales; 3) the decline in gross margin and the corresponding increase in sales expenses. According to estimates of minority shareholders' equity, the annual equity income is estimated to be around 240 million yuan. Results are expected to improve this year. 2015 was the bottom of performance, and 2016 was an improvement compared to 2015. This is mainly due to: 1) there was little new consolidation in 2016 compared to 2015, and depreciation pressure is not great; 2) Tezhisun's out-of-stock problem will be solved next year, and performance is expected to achieve restorative growth after the joint venture's sales staff stabilizes; 3) there is not much additional pressure in the short term; 4) future diabetes lines and macromolecular targeted drugs are being developed to further support the company's valuation. It is recommended to pay close attention to changes in the company's management level and expectations for state-owned enterprise reform. The profit forecast was lowered to 0.05 yuan/0.13 yuan in 2016/17 (the reduction was 73% and 53%), with year-on-year increases of 272.5% and 150.9%. The current stock price's P/E for 16/17 is 253x/101x. Valuation and suggestions Currently, the company is facing difficulties in many aspects of transformation, but research products are first abundant, so I am optimistic about the company's potential for reversal. Based on current market capitalization, the company's P/B is only ~2x, which is far below the industry average. Maintaining a “neutral” rating, the target price was lowered by 8% to 15.6 yuan, and the corresponding 16-year P/E was 312x, taking into account EPS adjustments. The marketing reform progress of venture joint ventures fell short of expectations, and the release of new products fell short of expectations.

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